A Flawed Trade System in Europe || Mar. 30, 2026
European efforts to build trade systems that exclude the U.S. are inherently flawed.
Without the U.S. Navy securing global trade routes, Europe will be limited in how far its trade network can extend. Given how protectionist the EU is, especially with agriculture, meaningful trade agreements will be difficult to negotiate. And even if they get through all of that, Europe's slow and complex ratification process is no walk in the park.
The latest agreement with Australia will likely face a similar fate to the Mercosur and Canada deals, which took decades to finalize. Best case, this deal will take full effect around 2040...
Comments (39)
It makes sense that all countries must protect their agriculture because Trump has proved no country can be known to always be an ally.
Well, struggle means an incentive to develop. We struggle already with an unreliable partner, so it does not matter much.
Just for fun: what's the alternative to this stuff, for Europe? I'm assuming they do it like this so that everybody can maintain their ethnic identities yet avoid having big wars every couple of decades? I actually would be interested in your geopolitics take, maybe in your next book... I have been wondering what's next, as China seems to be the last "colony" in the economics (or cycle?) of colonizing the next pool of cheap labor... Intuitively, I keep coming back to how the slates have been cleared in past cycles, and it seems like we ought to be able to move beyond those models from the past...? (Umm, hope for the best; plan for the worst?)
Peter being a cat guy has made me question everything he’s ever said… just kidding love what you do!
Analysis delivered with cats is charming and less distracting than analysis with a horse trying to eat PZ’s clothes!
Peter is a cat guy? 👌❤️❤️
The Europeans are absolutely in the right to block USA agricultural exports, many of which are heavily contaminated with chemicals off all kinds. There's much science to back this statement up...
Give an example that you can back up.
He who regulates the world, rules the world. Remember when Trump fired all those people......
Aww, Loki and Pandora. I think 'Cassandra' would make a great PZ cat name as well.
If the world is expected to deglobalize, shouldn't we be more aggressively protecting our own agriculture sectors?
Excellent analysis of trade situation. Also, more cat please.
As predicted. None of this is a surprise. Think about how long it took Israel to bomb Gaza into submission. That was 2 million people and they were caged in. Iran has 90 million. And a lawless border with Pakistan and Afghanistan. Face palming my way through the week. I’m shocked anyone here thinks the US is going to win this in any way.
Timestamp?
I designed and sold a couple specialty industrial products into the EU, parts for a much larger machine. Even working with and in support of European companies it was not a market I chose to pursue. They really don't want foreign companies doing business there.
Peter, one cat shy of becoming the Crazy Cat Guy
Pandora is adorable
SIAMESE!
2040? What do you mean you are going to retire by then?
I think Peter ignores the obvious. The EU signed trade deals which had been moving very slowly very quickly when the need arose. From it's initial conception to now the EU has only gotten stronger bigger richer and more integrated with each passing year whilst exactly the opposite has happened with USA.
Viktor Orban.
I miss having a cat.
Also, the EU and USA might reduce a bit of trade, but there certainly won't be decoupling anytime soon. Both sides benefit from the trade relationship too much.
Flawed as it may be, it is still better to protect the EU market from Roundup and other poisoned crap from the US. The United States ranks only 69th in the Legatum Prosperity Index Health Rankings 2023, despite spending 17.2% of GDP on health in 2024, the highest share in the OECD
The EU was way too slow on making trade deals... But back then, they could afford to be. The US had semi-competent leadership and didn't threaten allies. There wasn't an oil crisis from a war of choice. Venezuela had a happily corrupt leader. The threat to Greenland was sharks... The world has changed. And Canada is busy signing deals as fast as Europe is.
Loki the God of mischief and Pandora's Box 🎁. Great names! 😺 😺
I think 'Cassandra' would make an excellent addition!
This video player is really crap
@PZ may have retired by 2040, but what a @PZAI that looks across all your previous work and answers into your place? I know of writers/analysts building that today!
“Hey, everybody, PeterBot coming to you from a Colorado data center. Update, today, on new developments in Persian Canyon (formerly known as Iran, back in the 2020’s…)
Excusez-moi monsieur! Le Dairy of the France will not allow you to doubt its value compared to the lesser dairies of the world. Le Crème Entière has always ruled and will rule, whether you like it or not!
What, do you want something like Pinot No Longer Noir PZ? Genetically pure for 600 years! https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/scientists-say-this-600-year-old-grape-seed-is-genetically-identical-to-modern-varieties-used-to-make-pinot-noir-180988437/
EU definitely moves too slowly but I wouldn't be surprised if the US starts watering it's crops with gatorade next
It's what plants crave!
Peter, necessity is the mother of invention. This upended world we now live in is going to need change and needed change will come no matter the past. What a screwed up world we live in here in 2026.
True but these are Europeans lol. Taking out the trash requires 24 pages of approval.
Most alarming thing in this post is Peter expects to not be doing this, by 2040! But, then again, if these analyses are correct, (and I believe they are), I’ll be too busy foraging for food and fending off interloping marauders, to worry much about daily updates, I guess.
The Aussie/EU deal is a clown show.
No Zeihan on Geopolitics in 2040 ... Woantchoo reconsider, Peter? ... 🥺 It's only another 15 years. Thyme goazbye fast. Com'ooooon- Pete ... 😁