How to Break Iran || Mar. 23, 2026
If the U.S. wants to force a meaningful change in Iran's government, there's only one path forward. They have to destabilize the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The IRGC has become the center of power in Iran. While leadership is divided into three groups, the IRGC is the military-economic network that controls industry and enforces domestic control. Given Iran's fragmentation and ethnic diversity, internal stability is essential. Should the IRGC's revenue streams fall in the war, internal fractures would form.
If the younger members begin seeking power over the older elites who control the wealth, a civil conflict would erupt. Of course, it would be extremely destabilizing not only for Iran but also for the region.
Comments (45)
Great podcast
Peter I hope the bottom of your house and eaves are non combustible. Any valley fire is going to rip over your ridge line. The trees need to be further back. Assuming you have a suppression system with excess water storage capacity on site.
If Trump and company really wanted the common people of Iran to rise up they certainly aren't going to do that with protest signs. Maybe TandC should start randomly air dropping pallets of weapons all over the place. What could possibly go wrong with that plan?
You can't ignore the IRGC's funds from international crime. Sam Cooper at The Bureau cites US intelligence linking the IRGC with Chinese triads and Mexican cartels in fentanyl manufacturing, money laundering, smuggling, arms dealing and assassination. How do you control that money?
Sorry…off the subject….. but what’s wrong with this story that Trump buys out the windmill project and that French company investment in a Texas LNG plant will help American families achieve lower electric bills? LNG plants buy huge amounts of natural gas, compress to liquid form using lots of electricity, then export the LNG. So, they drive up the price of domestic natural gas bc natural gas power plants are competing to buy the gas they export. And the use a large amount of electricity for the process, pushing up demand and prices of electricity. Hmmm. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/french-company-stops-us-offshore-172230712.html
Following up on this train of thought is an interesting idea related to the Hormuz Strait. “Everyone uses the Strait or no one uses it”. It seems to me such an approach would affect affect the income stream of the IRGC as well as other more kinetic approaches. It also may put pressure on Iran to open the streets. I wonder if you could evaluate that suggestion and discuss discuss it in one of your briefs.
No way this conflict ends soon. We leave its chaos. We stay it’s a military quagmire. That’s why no president has opted to bomb Iran.
This is such a nightmare.
Trump / Bessant and co are supposedly the geniuses of economic warfare.. why didn't they just take the ships full of oil cut off the money pressure the Russians and Chinese etc etc instead of bombing the shit out of everything?
BECAUSE THEY ARE FUCKING CORRUPT! WAKE TRHE FUCK UP!!!
As you mentioned in a previous time Episode, ground troops in Iran is fruitless with the terrain.
Another way to possibly undermine the IRGC is to end all of the sanctions. When the sanctions are lifted anyone can buy anything, and in turn sell anything they want. Then, when they cannot buy and sell things the west is willing to provide their ire will be turned toward internal roadblocks to their success and away from western sanctions that no longer apply. The same could be applied to Cuba. Lift all sanctions. Negotiate to allow American manufacturing businesses into Cuba. Cuba has a population of over 10 million people. Not nearly what China has but a helluva lot closer. Close, cheap labor. Gee, I wonder what 10 million people would do with lots of American money? What would they want to do? I would be spend it. And again, their ire would be turned toward their governmental system not allowing certain things in, thus creating internal pressure for regime change. This would be a long-term, slow process, and yet could yield goodwill toward the USA, an embracing of free market ideals, and prosperity for all. There would also be a great deal of nuance to this. I am broad brushing an idea that experts would need to fill in massive gaps, but since Orange Man acknowledges no experts greater than himself it would never succeed under this administration.
A thoughtful, long term approach to building peace and prosperity. Yeah... it'll never happen. But I admire you optimism. ;)
The revolution will not be televised on the internet, because it is shutdown. One big disaster away from the next revolution.
Peter. Is a Persian spring initiative being seriously considered/pursued? It is springtime.
Thanks Peter
I can’t help but feel like had the trump administration just used traditional economic levers in 2017 onward we could have just infiltrated the Iranian economy to such an extent we could have began to slowly bend them towards our will over 20 years. We had the nuclear agreement that they were abiding by, we had begun creating the relationships on the ground, it was probably the cheapest and least disruptive way we could have changed the region to our whim and Trump just wasn’t smart enough to see it so he just blew it all up, listening to the likes of Bolton and Lindsey Graham
This is the downside of our politicians only thinking in 2 & 4 year increments. All about getting elected and not about what is good in the long-term. The voters have the same, short attention span. Even if you are correct about using the traditional economic levers, most of our politicians in real positions of power are so old they would never even be around to see it through.
Close the Strait. Just Do it and stand the pain. They will choke
Nope, they can still ship oil from Jask if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
I certainly see the theoretical potential. What I am missing is a vision of turning that into a practical political or military action plan. Bombs and blockades? But, where, when, how, etc.? I saw a video where an Iranian pointed out, theoretically, how the country could break up into about five different new ethnic states, e.g. a Kurd state in the NW, Sunni ISIS in the NE, etc. That would take years though. Frankly, I think USA citizens will only put up with the intense military action for a few more weeks. Quagmire and Forever War MUST be avoided. Last, I don't think Trump has the ability to pull off anything that's even mildly complex, nuanced, or might require some patience. So,...bombs away and go home. Then wait and see what happens. Which is anyone's guess IMO.
Bombing won't fix it. Even bombing Iran flat still leaves IRGC activity through proxies etc. in neighbouring countries. Including with links to a nuclear Pakistan, which the IRGC can destabilize. Cutting off the IRGC funding network is the long term solution - otherwise the US has to come back every few years as they rebuild.
These folk aren’t religious, they are thugs. Hurt them in their pockets; bank accounts, trade partners bank accounts, wives and children’s bank accounts and university status, crypto, international real estate ect…
A lot of the funding doesn't go through banks or bank accounts (due to sanctions), which is what makes the IRGC funding so complex. It's a big task to dismantle the oil-for-terror model, Hawala financing, crypto laundering, etc.
I can hear your cat
Maybe the best way to end this madness is to stop trump....
...no es possible', lawfully.
I hope you feel better Peter. Thank you for the extra effort while you are under the weather.
Somehow the “solutions” PZ comes with always involve destroying or degrading Muslim countries
Somehow, Muslim countries always need destroying. See Sam Harris’s 2006 warning about Islam: https://archive.ph/3jpKY
Why is Iran the problem again? Why not the only country WITH actual nukes in the Middle East
Why hasn't the country with the nukes used them?
GREAT topic! Thank you for covering this. Absolutely, IRGC finance is a critical aspect of a sustainable path to peace. Would love to hear more on this topic, including the erosion of the Hawala network, control of oil funds, implications for regional neighbours, etc. 👍👍👍
Peter, asking this for the writers of Landman now streaming on Paramount; How would this impact the domestic (Texas) hydrocarbon industry? Would you expect the Gulf markets to be offline for the next six months, and with that all the other hydrocarbon products that are derived through the refining of crude oil? With great gratitude, Gordon.
It depends on what gets bombed. Recovery currently would take months (some aspects years). However, if the critical infrastructure gets attacked tomorrow as is threatened... That's a humanitarian crisis in the Gulf. Building back that infrastructure and capability would take years, if at all. If the Houthis in Yemen join again and close the Red Sea... More complex again.
what does anyone here think about a comment from Andrew Bustamante (sp?), that April 9 is a day to watch out for, which is the end of the 40 day mourning period for the death of the Supreme Leader?
A 40 day mourning period. Was unaware of it. Post 40 days? ... 🤔 ... I would ask Andrew, what capabilities would Iran have after the 40 days, that they did not have during, which has not been seen? Has Iran held something back, not revealing their entire arsenal? Somehow, I think that unlikely. Not something to be dismissed, but what have they got that remains unknown? April 10th, we will see.
Feel better Peter. Who will still be here next year? The IRGC or DJT?
Which is worse?
History will call this the Epstein war - everyday it becomes clear Trump had no idea about Iran’s capacity to defend themselves. The reason we are here is because Epstein kept good records. The global economic pain train from the strikes on energy assets and loss of energy flows will be felt for a long time.
No, and TDS won't be remembered either.
Sorry PZ, we already started betting on Godzilla Vs Humbaba Vs The Enkidu. I don’t the U.S. Military has informed TroTUS about the Jaegars yet. The Strait is Closed, the Timer is Set it’s Kaiju Fighting Time.
I don’t think the U.S. military*
The scenario you describe seems unlikely. - thanks so much for the analysis
Listen, we’re talking about two, 8,000 year old mythic figures versus one, contemporary radioactive reptilian monster. Every sides playing it loose, no one knows who’s on what side and all of us Humans just gotta be praying there ain’t no damn Mothras or Loch Ness Monsters involved. I find your lack of faith, disturbing. Also, 800,000,000 Tomans on the Enkidu.