Aluminum Shortages Coming Soon || Mar. 20, 2026
Aluminum production in the Persian Gulf is going bye-bye. As Iran ramps up strikes on gas fields, pipelines, and power plants, the countries that depend upon cheap natural gas will no longer be able to run their smelters.
The facilities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman account for roughly 9% of global primary aluminum. This is going to tighten supply for many key global industries like construction, vehicles, and aerospace.
The U.S. will catch a break on most of this pressure, since it relies on recycled aluminum for much of its supply. However, global supply shortages, coupled with Trump's tariffs, will still drive up prices.
Comments (28)
Dear Patreon: I don’t want a “Queue”. How do I get this OUT of my “Queue” so it doesn’t keep overlaying part of my precious screen space??
The went to beer and Cola cans. Majority I've heard comes from Jamaica of all places. I've always wondered this. Will watch video later.
Aluminum prices going up world wide? Sounds like a potential investment opportunity. Ya know, ignoring the ethical questions of profiting off the misfortunes of others. Though I did suggest to my financial guy that we should be looking for investment opportunities in weapons manufacturing as it seems a lot of that stuff is going to be used a lot all over the world in the coming years.
Strange take for Peter, he has to know that China is the top producer of aluminum in the world, by like orders of magnitude. He should revise this take.
Peter, so far it appears that the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia have essentially played the role of "Rocky" in the early rounds against Apollo Creed--they've just been taking a beating, despite their defensive efforts. At what point, can we expect any of them, but especially Saudi Arabia with its large air force, to go on the offensive and attack Iran's own energy production sites, power stations and refineries? I would think any one of them might consider an attack on Kharg Island even if Israel or the USA do not.
Peter, how is it possible that the audio quality of your videos filmed outdoors is much better than those shot in your indoor office?
Peter, aluminum is definitely combustible. It takes a lot of (local) energy to get going, but once it gets going it can be really hard to put out. Remember the HMS Sheffield in the Falklands War? 1 good missile hit sent the aluminum hulled ship ablaze.
RRG: The Wikipedia article on the HMS Sheffield says this is a popular error, that the hull was steel, and that the confusion arose from a pair of Royal Navy vessels that suffered catastrophic fires in the 1970s that had superstructures made from an aluminum-magnesium alloy.
Looks like aluminum recycling will be much more profitable and cost effective this year. Thanks to Trump for promoting recycling and BEVs.
So basically bring on the global depression
Power outages at aluminum smelters often result in damage to the reducing pots that mean the whole pot needs to be replaced. The anodes and cathode lining are damaged when the alumina/aluminum/cryolite (a catalyst) solution freezes.
For some reason people don’t like to talk about Canada anymore but guess who produces a lot of it… Canada. And yes we’re gonna be annoying about it 😂
If you've been watching for a while, you realise that Peter don't know jackshit about Canada. He doesn't even know the current population, having gotten it wrong repeatedly.
the removal of tariffs should reduce the cost of steel. HOWEVER Trump's tariffs gave steel manufacturers a permanent increase on steel that will never return to 2024 prices. For a lot of goods, Trump's meddling with the markets was planned. He knew tariffs were illegal giving the big players an excuse to raise prices. They will NOT drop.
so......more wins for Canada. proper
I sell for an aluminum foundry, to make matters worse, two smelters in the Midwest had recent catastrophic events, roof caving in and a fire. Should make things interesting on this front
Will the Ukrnians and there interceptors in or going to Persian gulf be able to stop or greatly reduce the Iranian threat,
"I'm sailing away!"
Aluminum futures is the buy today
My short term concern is: The Iranian Regime is still in control and still fighting. What remains of government regime personnel are hiding like rats in caves and behind women and children yet they are capable of launching significant aerial attacks on Israel and Gulf state assets. My view is it's time for regime change, or not. The Iranian people should and must rise up and take back their country. Will they? Honestly, I have severe doubts. Nonetheless, NOW is the time.
Sounds like Belling the Cat!
What a weather🥶 here, in MTL the same, lol. Thank you, Mr. Zeihan for sharing this info, for keeping us updated, for your objective overview.
In Australia we pronounce it al-you-minny-um. Just FYI.
I thought these countries were getting Ukrainian drones to protect them?
Is America great again yet?
If only Kamala was elected. Gas would be 49 cents a gallon; there would be no weeds in the lawn; the Yankees would always win the World Series. What have we done?
Uhhhh PZ… I thought we weren’t supposed to talk about being in the Alumnati on the internet?
Also, how are you supposed to pronounce Alumina with an Anglophone accent? Al-You-Meen-Ah?