As Fertilizer Falls, Famine Will Follow || Mar. 19, 2026
Now that the Strait of Hormuz is shut down due to the Iran war, the impact is beginning to hit global food systems. This is coming in the form of fertilizer production disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
Potash and phosphate-based fertilizers remain mostly unaffected, but nitrogen-based fertilizers that rely on natural gas are the problem. Global urea and ammonia supplies are already being hit hard.
Prices will begin to rise, and places like China and India will face chronic fertilizer shortages. This will reduce global food production, and I think you can guess what happens after that...
Comments (42)
Of course the western US has water problems to add to the cost of fertilizer. In Colorado we have had very little snow compared to average snow falls. In my area we were just notified of water restrictions that would soon kick in. And food prices will start their inexorable climb.
China looks as though it’s pretty well nitrogen fertiliser are sufficient getting its fertiliser from coal base rather than gas base
I hope this is the ‘often wrong’ PZ opinion.
If I were myanmar I'd be shitting myself right now.
Why? Does Netanyahu benefit from attacking Myanmar, too?
Is it useful to talk about 50 year problems regarding fertilizer in the context of the current conflict?
If you measure it by number of people dying, probably yes.
Adding whatever is happening in Moscow, and now Belarus to the increasing global awareness that many nations will be struggling to get energy and material resources this world looks primed for expanding conflict. For now many nations are still choosing teams, like kids getting ready for a game of sportsball.
Red Diesel prices have farmers contemplating if putting crops in the ground is worth it alone. Never mind fertilizer.
Florida is a source of fossilized bird pooh and a place where billionaires are flocking. Is that a cause and effect? BTW, like those Hawkeye colors on your head, Peter. Good job!
Maybe it's coming from billionaires pooping and charging a premium for it now.
A solution already exists... https://www.greenlightning.ag/
If you believe this I have a bridge to sell you.
Well done!
Also, urea is the active ingredient in diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), mandated in the US for every diesel-powered vehicle produced since 2010 (earlier, I believe, for EU).
Just remember that you need 2 years of compost lead time to have humanure for your garden. Have fun playing in your snow machine, lol
Maybe it's time to consider natural sources of fertilizers.
Nightsoil is filthy with heavy metals, medicines, and PFAS - it’s literally ruining farms in Maine and other states. As a farmer one can also set up rotational grazing onto arable fields, it’s just our large crop producers have separated from livestock and the equipment needs differ to the tune of millions. Beyond that our cattle herd is as small as it’s been in half a century. Why we’re importing South American beef to the US right now. It can be done Edwin, we’re just not set up for it. And the countries on the margins with lack of arable soils are in mortal peril. Within the US drought is a serious factor as is aquifers running dry (and rivers). NorCal farms rely on ever diminishing supplies as snowpack lessens.
Globalization is over. Did you prepare? Or do you have prayer?
Peter, you should do a segment on 'What If we did nothing and a few months/years down the road Iran sent nukes flying into Israel and all the US bases in the middle east.' I would think the US/Israel response would be massively worse than what we've seen in the last few weeks and global meltdown would probably be the result of that.
The Iranians didn't want the nukes to launch them. They wanted them to act out, threaten and intimidate. Launching them is a one-time high. They want to be high for ever;-)
Sorry I’m confused. 30 percent of supply from Persian gulf is currently shut down. Why do we believe that it will remain shut down over the next 10, 20,30 years? Why do we believe that other countries such as the U.S. and others don’t increase production to meet the demand? If it’s not a problem short term, why is a problem long term? Maybe Iran, Israel, and the Gulf States are on a path of mutually assured destruction. But in another generation of people, with a strong profit motive, seems like they can rebuild. I understand a short term problem. But not a long term problem. Please tell me what I’m missing here
Production is shut down for oil and natural gas fields, which will take months to years to come back online, if ever.
Is this good news for Anerican farmers to export agricultural products to other markets, or will higher costs for fuel take away any advantage?
Maybe the founding fathers had a point when they made it so only the Congress could declare war, like I get the president needs the leeway to command the military in an emergency when we’re on the defensive, but the Trump war of choice was an out of the blue offensive attack If Pete Hegseth still has a job after the Trump war has concluded, no one can trust the USA for strategic security. Rubio is also just as much to blame, this was obvious. I also feel like a more competent secretary of agriculture would have been advocating heavily the last few months, knowing that this is coming to start building a strategic reserve for fertilizer. A competent Secretary of energy would have been filling the strategic reserves with oil and getting more LNG systems online.
Chris Wright. His background indicates competence. He has been advocating for fossil fuel production. Fertilizer, though, is more under Agriculture, I would think or maybe Interior (mining).
Famine, Trump manifest another killing machine.
Sounds like a business opportunity to ramp up export by the US…
The new LNG terminal down in Louisiana has already been such an environmental disasters there it’s wiped out like 80% of the fisheries. I have no doubt that Trump will be excited to take out more American fisheries in Texas and the mid Atlantic somewhere by eliminating environmental regulations… He loves crushing America’s small businesses.
High cost for maintaining a 51st state in the Middle East
Nitrogen fertilizer was already overpriced compared to the price of the commodities being grown with it. This just makes it even less affordable. North America has the capability to produce and be self-sufficient in all 3 of the major fertilizers he mentions if we could simply get out of our own way. The last Nitrogen facility completed was in Iowa in 2017. Before that, it had been 25 years with no new facilities built. The biggest obstacle is the time it takes to build a production facility. By the time the plant is built, we have had multiple federal elections and the political winds have shifted, making investment in new facilities very unattractive to the large investors needed to build such a facility.
The fertilizer sector in North America could be just like the oil and natural gas is now. We were reliant on people that don't really like us for oil just a couple decades ago. Now we are a net exporter of energy. We could do the same in fertilizer.
As always, great content, Peter. Thank you. Could you share the things that must be true for the chronic nitrogen deficit to extend to 10 or 20 years?
Urea was already on the move before Iran. Turnarounds tightened North American supply, and Europe’s gas problems have kept nitrogen production constrained for months. The current spike is just adding fuel to an already bullish setup.
Any correlation about what is currently going on in Belarus w/coup rumors and troop movements and their position as one of the world's largest suppliers of potash fertilizer? Is securing that combined with their support of Russia against Ukraine and Europe pushing events there to a head?
And yet still Zeihan is too chicken shit to ever criticize Israel even remotely
Disagree. I’m glad to have Peter’s analyses precisely because he’s not consumed with the Israel narrative. Plenty of other media covering that topic elsewhere.
So, the way I hear it here, this is a problem regardless of the speed to the end of the war? I’m not expecting it, sadly, but if there’s a relatively quick resolution, how much of this gets smoothed out & ends up fine?
Phosphate producers also have a very heavy dependence on large quantities of sulfur, and the Gulf is/was the largest supplier.
Hey, you know, a lot of people have been saying for almost an entire year now, that a lot of people have been calling TroTUS the “Fertilization President.” Idk why we are surprised, he meant what he said, he said what he meant, and… person, man, woman, camera, tv… https://people.com/donald-trump-nicknames-himself-fertilization-president-womens-history-month-11704347
How long til this is really reflected in food prices on retail level?
You can never have enough peas