The U.S. Dollar: Short vs. Long Term || Mar. 13, 2026
Before anybody asks, no, the following is NOT financial advice. The U.S. dollar is constantly in the spotlight, so where is it heading?
Over the long term, the U.S. dollar is well-positioned to rise. Four main factors are driving this: U.S. naval dominance to secure global trade, favorable demographics, abundant food and energy resources, and the need to expand manufacturing. Each of these suggests durable economic strength.
But in the short term, current policy is driving the dollar downward. Before the Iran war, things like immigration limits, tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, and eroding business confidence all weakened the dollar. The Iran war has brought a temporary lift, albeit a marginal one, as investors seek safety.
Comments (37)
Dollar goes higher no matter what. Follow the flows, stories don’t matter.
you’re making me sound like a trumpster defending him but you literally ate ignorant on th subject, i am surprised you’re even a member. your Biden bill was terrible, it allowed the border to remain open and us admit a few thousand and stop the rest, aside from changing definitions to become an asylum seeker much easier. Trump closed the border without any new laws, just with current ones, how cool is that?
i just told you why, because it allowed several thousand illegals to enter daily. that’s not shutting the border, especially after admitting 10-12M IN 4 YEARS. Trump shut it to ZERO on day one with current laws. if you’re a man worth your salt, you should be happy! that’s why i call you a man that thinks like a woman, you’re emotional with zero sense of protection, femenine
Make your Dollars work on this problem. Donate money to every Democratic candidate you can find. You won’t like everything they stand for, but we can not continue to have a liar at the helm of our ship of state. Have a house party and educate your neighbors about what Peter is teaching. Stop whining and let your Dollars make change happen!
Better yet, prioritize the ones on top of the list https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gPBdBrqVCbtuy7f1bjOdCDUzEv5RqbbU1yYAr3KoHYE The ones near the bottom often sabotage the party and should be primaried.
Thanks for covering this topic with an update, I really appreciate getting Peter's perspective on this.
I appreciate the investment advice Peter.
Keep in mind that if you use Peter's videos as investment advice you are entering into agreement where if you win you need to share the winnings with Zeihan Group, but if you lose... well... suck it up.
Since cheap gas and 'Merica first, no foreign wars are 2 big tenants of maga what would make Trump violate them other than kompromat from mossad/Epstein?
Is that a robin I hear trilling in the background?
I’ve not often had occasion to disagree, but driving around Oakland County (Michigan), I’m witnessing a lot of new constructions in and around Auburn Hills. (This is where many automotive suppliers have their facilities.) Am I missing something, or is this something with sample size?
Our manufacturing is dead. Attending the process show in Vegas last year was depressing. Every equipment MFG booth was inactive. Vegas itself was flat. Why isn't big business on Cheeto's ass?
SHOCKED you didn't mention the JONES ACT TODAY. Big news for your, albeit temporarily.
Gosh -- it is like the people running the system love frantic market movements in order to profit from volatility.
I didn't regret owning gold. Just saying.
40 trillion debt. 1.2 trillion more per year. Yeah.... Good luck.
Easy fix: negative interest rates! /s
it’s difficult to absorb and take you seriously whenever you speak of th US cause everything is always negative when it involves Trump or his administration. Your demographics and international videos are much better.
It is easy to talk about MAGA in a negative light. They invite it with almost every action they take. Anti-business, anti-democracy, does not understand international issues...and I could go on. Even the idiots that voted for him are turning their backs on him. Only the truly dim still support MAGA.
If no country has the ships to reach the states. What would stop everyone from coming together and simply using their aircraft such as retro fitting airliners et cetera?
What would stop them is running out of hallucinogenic glue to sniff.
It is becoming quite evident that perhaps putting a game show host from Queens inside the White House who has a crush on his son in law’s wife and expecting a sensible economic policy was perhaps not a bright move
Second term blues... could be worse! 🤡
Peter, although you were not specific, you were clearly talking about the dollar exchange rate, which is driven, not by how well or poorly we are doing, but how well or poorly we are doing relative to the rest of the world. And there we have a number of advantages that are likely to boost the dollar relative. Although since our future almost certainly will involve widespread capital controls, it's not clear whether that matters as much as it has up until now. But as you have often said, the US is not very entangled in the international system , so for most people what matters is not the dollar exchange rate but the dollar purchasing power, how many does it take to buy a loaf of bread. That has been falling monotonically since the creation of the Federal Reserve some 100 years ago, and it has been falling steeply since we exited the gold standard some 55 years ago. Given the level of debt in the system today, it will fall much, much faster in the future, and most likely it will never stop falling ever, since we are not likely to return to the gold standard.
Glad I am retired, Doug Ducey did this as well, and the Arizona state regulations are still a mess, and will be for a decades. Dumb dumb dumb.
I remember an insider: "At least for economics, they haven't brought in the clown car."
Oh Peter, why must you speak truth? It is so much easier for people to watch their favorite media outlet to give them their daily talking points and not do any critical thinking. You need to immediately get treated for TDS because obviously the Dear Leader can do no wrong and you must be the problem.
6:26 ... I live in Europe, get paid in dollar. Very attuned by the sunlight changes of everyday, ... of Euro/Doll swings. It has just gotten worse every month since Tarif Liberation Day last year. Since the Start of The Iran War. The Dollar has actually come back against Euro, since the Start of the War 118.65 to presently 14.5ish. That is Fucking Huge ...!!!...and- in My favour ... In a week! Haven't seen that since maybe late Oct. The Dollar has fallen every month against the Euro since Tarif day and in a single week, we've Gained Back 8 months. In that regard the Iran War has been Highly favourable, at least to those of us living outside The U.S.. Sorry Peter, this is actually about a week late. Dollar gains have been Awesome since The War began. 🐝leev'Me ...👁️do know about the Euro/Dollar flux. As 👁️am, both highly affected and powerless to do anything about it. The Exchange Rate is The Exchange Rate ... and it hasn't been kind. Thankx2 King Orange ... 👑🟧 ... ... ... 😒
I don't know what your job is - but whatever it is its your "side Hussle": you are full time FX trader lol!
MAGA says, ….Meh, we reject your reality and substitute our own. All truth flows from Donald Trump. It's all good, comrades.
Isn’t the OMB director the same how can you claim that they don’t know how to deregulate
The US needs to do a 180. The current approach is only going to alienate us, create global and domestic inequality like never before.
Unfortunately, that ship sailed long ago. We are now rudderless with a broken engine in the middle of a CAT 5 hurricane.
Well, this is tangentially related. Now, legally, by Imperial, I mean Communist, ok, it’s sounds better to say By A He Who Is Xi Decree!: Everyone in China is now Chinese: https://apnews.com/article/china-ethnic-minority-assimilation-law-45db00f1d9e301f8704a0c0c057ca994?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
And we all thought we were turning Japanese… nope. Ethnically Han.
Yet Iran has the straight closed and our navy can't do shit..... Quit with the American exceptionalism.
We are now exceptionally weak thanks to our idiot in chief and his naive and gullible cult.