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Af/Pak: A War in Name Only || Bonus Video (1 of 3)
Michael on AfgPak Conflict - transcript.pdf 30.8 KB
February 28, 2026

Af/Pak: A War in Name Only || Bonus Video

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif declared his country as being in “open war” with Afghanistan on Friday 27, following a series of cross border strikes between the two neighbors. The reality is more muted.

While the Pakistani military is currently conducting strikes against militant targets in Afghanistan—as well as air strikes in Kabul and Kandahar—the difficult geography and limited reach of both parties mean a conventional military engagement remains very unlikely. Furthermore, Pakistan has spent decades trying, and failing, to bring its restive regions along its western borders under central government control. Despite their long shared border, Pakistan lacks a secure overland transport corridor to send troops and supplies into Afghanistan.

Islamabad is asking the weaker Afghan state to achieve a strategic goal that has thus far eluded Pakistan: getting Islamist militants inline and under control. Rhetoric and tensions will continue to flare as both states lack the tools to meaningfully address rising regional militant activity; Pakistan will launch strikes as necessary to respond to militant attacks, and Afghanistan will continue to lack the ability or desire to rein in Taliban-adjacent militants.

Comments (17)

D
David Cannistraro · March 9, 2026

Excellent analysis!

D
D.S. · March 3, 2026

I was critical of your presentation style a couple years ago. And I stand by that. ~~AND~~ you are getting better and better with every video. Well done, mate.

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TG1080 · February 28, 2026

Wonder if the "war in name only" will apply to Iran now that it seems some bombs and missiles are flying

A
Allen M · February 28, 2026

Limited strategic gain. That says it all, and ignore it all. Most of the middle east is now in that category. Quite frankly, we have more important things to worry about

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LumenM · February 28, 2026

"Most of the middle east is now in that category" ... That is a really good point. It is, spot-on.

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robert benfit · February 28, 2026

Thanks Michael!

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Nick · February 28, 2026

Great presentation and very informative! Thank you as always!

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oldwhiteguy · February 28, 2026

Pakistanis were dicks throughout the US-Afghan war. We left stacks of small arms when we left. Afghans distributed weapons to groups inside Pakistan especially to Baluchistan. Baluchs are fighting Iran. Fun Games

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Mark Scheithe · February 28, 2026

And here we go with Trump's war. He's a little boy with big toys. Why do we need congress?

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Kowalski from Nebraska · February 28, 2026

I have a feeling we’re gonna get a second one of these videos today. President peacemaker has decided to start killing Iranians…. I guess that’s not fair, his Israeli handler has made him complicit in killing Iranians.

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Barry Fulford · February 28, 2026

Michael thank you for the synopsis.

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LumenM · February 28, 2026

"less than Zero amount of luv for Regional Islamic Militants ... So You are saying- X > 0 ≠ 💖 ... ... ... 🤨 Do 👁️/We have the Correct Assessment Read ... phrumyur ... most deliberate, thoroughly-considered, thought-through ... 😐 ... to this Scenario's Terminus ...???... 😑 ... Director of Operations and Intelligence - Mike - Zeihan - OlGeoShitGlobal Inc. - Command'n'Control ... Flagship HQ (Classified-Undisclosed Location ... 🤫) ...???... 😐 DoozWeNow - Director? ... 😐 ... Thank You most kindly ... Director Mike ... 😌 Have a nice weekend Director Mike ... 🙂

D
Daniel Zabala · February 28, 2026

Thank you.

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Edwin Pole II · February 28, 2026

This is an example of why I constantly harp on US foreign policy in the ME. It's a snake pit of interlocking conflicts not worth our involvement unless some damn fool cave dwellers directly cause us trouble.

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Richard Barber · February 28, 2026

Thank you.

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Kyle Lame · February 28, 2026

This doesn’t really answer my question as to whether or not this is a complicated Buzkashi competition?

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Digital Window · February 28, 2026

Thanks mnno. Is this 'security operation' likely to join up with the Iran war in some form?