The U.S. Inches Towards Iran Conflict || Feb. 23, 2026
U.S. strikes against Iran appear imminent, with two aircraft carriers being positioned in the Persian Gulf. Trump has presented Iran with negotiation terms that would effectively end Iran's status as a regional power, so it's no surprise that negotiations have stalled.
The terms laid out by Trump would end Iranian nuclear enrichment, force them to give up long-range missile capabilities, and stop supporting regional paramilitary groups. Spoiler alert: that's Iran's entire strategy and security model. Any conflict would likely start in the air, then move to targeting strategic assets like Kharg Island. Once that happens, Iran would be crippled.
Outside intervention would be unlikely, and removing Iranian oil from global markets wouldn't be the end of the world. The main concern would be destabilizing the region and risking the formation of new terror groups, although things like that take time.
Comments (53)
So much to consider on this one. 1: We started all this back in the 50's when the CIA helped to get the Shaw dynasty in place. We keep meddling in the middle east and I'm not sure it's been all that beneficial. 2: Other than oil price stability, why do we even care what is going on in the middle east these days? 3: It should be obvious to the Iranian government that they've really got no choice in this as long as Trump is being guided along our current path. 4: If the US strikes Iran in a meaningful way, is there a chance of the Saudis or Iraqis (or others) moving in and taking control of the region?
just bought oilu
Makes you wonder why Karg island wasn’t taken out say back in June
The Islamic Revolution was 1979.
Remember: "We have definite proof of weapons of mass destruction!" RICE/POWEL! Israel's bitch again.
The United States: Aways Israel's bitch. It's MAGA: Make America Great Again; NOT MIGA: Make Israel Greater Always! Is that clear? I hope so! Saying so doesn't mean I hate any Jew; I don't worship Israel ZION. ZIONISTS HERE: DON'T BOTHER REPLYING.
What about protecting and evacuating Mexican tourists? That's a big opening into boots on the ground in Mexico.
The audio quality for this in not what I would expect from a professional. Use a real mic please.
Agree. Zeihan needs to chat with the IT folks at popular podcasts such as Call Me Back with Dan Senor or Smartless.
Great analysis. Thanks Peter.
How does this help America?
Kinzhals have landed on Kyiv and not been particularly damaging, plus, iron dome and patriot systems have taken them out. The threat to ships is the tactical question of interest. How everything functions in the fog of a massive air campaign is another story. Iran will have only so long to pick targets and launch things before lights out
These are just negotiations, that may, from time to time, become kinetic. The Department of War will kindly inform the Senate when it is appropriate.
Where is israel in all this? Do you still believe that if push comes to bomb, that iran will wipe Saudi petroleum resources of the playing field too?
Moscow's retirement community making space already. Gold bricks en route.
This is gonna make Operation Praying Mantis look like pop shots
The fourth contingency is Iran can no longer support Russia with its weapons.
Shahed factories will definitely be a target. After all, it's our tech they got when the captured one of our drones.
If you want to put so much effort into a war why not defend Ukraine and get Russia off the world's a**
Looks like Trump has decided this to be his hail marry to turn the tide on the Epstein files, his approval ratings and his goal to obtain more wealth from the Middle East. From what Peter has said the time is ripe to slap Iran down. It seems the best scenario would be for Trump to be successful with his war with Iran, the democrats to then sweep the midterms and tie up Trump during the rest of his term and vote in a Democratic President. Afterwards all of Trump’s family and his partners in crime to be convicted and jailed. That’s a lot of pieces to fall into place. You can be sure Trump will be attempting to build up his ICE army in the meantime to either control and rig the midterm elections or outright take control of the US government.
Looks like the fight is about to start all you Trump hating girlyman liberals better do what you do best run and hide cowering in fear
🤣🤣
The American Public seems to have forgotten this is the idiot that bailed out of the Iranian Nuclear Agreement. This guy is SO stupid, it's embarrassing.
Some of the American public….
Question, how can you knock the Iranian economy back 50 yrs, has it progressed at all in that time?
The idea of the Iranian state collapsing, creating what would be like an eight times greater Syrian war situation, which sounds absolutely terrifying… How do you even manage a crisis of that magnitude without like 1 million blue helmets being sent in? A new refugee crisis, countless terror cells forming, a perforation of weapons, and I’m unwillingness of the major powers to do anything to stop it… what could possibly go wrong
Syria is just nothing like Iran. Too many differences to list. No indigenous rebellion of any strength. Topography, demography... literacy... neighborhood, etc. Established multiethnic enclaves, mountain redoubts. The scale differences in population are matched by scale of territory. A US bombing campaign will minimize civilian direct impacts meaning refugee crisis less likely, even so, more latitude considering the neighbors as an option. More likely to my mind is Iranian capitulation before long to preserve its political system. Assad had none of those options.
If this comes to fruition, concerning our bases in the region, what is the likelihood Israel lends us their new laser technology (Iron Beam) to protect the bases?
What does this do to domestic threat level with the collapse of our surveillance systems? Asymmetrical warfare should not be dismissed. It might not take America out, but it will inflate fervor for retaliation. Glad the UK is denying capacity to use us for strikes. I wonder if Iranians will start targeting red states. Have fun with that.
What collapse of surveillance systems? Who is dismissing asymmetrical warfare? Iranians targeting red states- super rich stuff.
And, of course, this administration isn’t even paying lip service to that little insignificant part of the constitution that says it’s Congress’s role to declare war.
Enough is enough; the planets have aligned. Time to gitter done. Hopefully, Milania will continue to whisper in POTUS's ear
A crazy little thing called war...
1979
The State of the Union address is due this week. Surely announcing an attack on Iran is going to be a feature.
https://www.cfr.org/articles/ten-facts-about-the-state-of-the-union-address
doesnt IRAN have the hyper sonic missiles russia showed off a few months ago? if one gets thru on tel aviv or our kuwait or qatar bases, we will look as bad as we did in vietnam. trump thinks he is invincible bc he has always gotten away w everything, venezuela being the latest, but lets not forget raping little girls, so he is emboldened and sooner or later hsi luck will run out. the mullahs might decide to go down fighting and not give a shit about what happens to the country, seems like they have shown that is their view already...
The Venezuelan strike exposes a deeper problem: this administration lacks not just the will, but the capacity to follow through on anything meaningful. The same pattern is evident in Cuba. Military action may grab headlines, but it is the easy part. The real test—and the real work—begins after the bombs fall. That is where strategy, commitment, and competence are required, and that is precisely where this administration repeatedly comes up short.
What happens after Iran shoots down one of our war planes, captures the pilot, and then parades this person before social media platforms and then publicly executes this airman. What will be Trump's next move? More bombs and shot down jet fighters? Nukes???? This is not a well thought our war plan by any measure and we are being dragged into war by idiots.
"This is not a well thought our war plan by any measure and we are being dragged into war by idiots." Well, yes, this administration is infested with idiots. But, are you a General or an analyst working at the Pentagon with critical information? If not, then just say you don't like the idea of the use of military force as a solution to our Iran Problem.
After Ukraine, no one, no one will give up its nuclear deterrrence, no matter if they have it already or close to get it.
European borders are already shut for that.
It Costs a lot (millions per day) to position a Carrier Group, much less two. If it were any other Administration, you could disqualify theatrics. This one ...???... 🤷 Analysis conducted revealed that U.S Strikes from carrier groups normally occur during the New-Moon ... when natural evening light is dimmest. New Moon for Feb ... 26th to March 1st range. If it does not happen this weekend, look at New Moon in March. *Ryan McBeth ... not Me.
I'm a fan. 👍
the US is naive to negotiate with any nation and expect agreements to be upheld against opportunistic adversity on either side. as macciavelli already stated - make an enemy your friend with lots to lose by acting against you or kill him (the actors - not the whole people)! Anything in between just buys time and essentially wastes resources.
I would think a maritime blockade of Iranian oil (etc?) might be a more proportional first move. The pro-Rus vs. anti-Iranian posturing of the USA is hard to fathom considering Russia and Iran are the key players in the Axis of Evil. A boots on the ground attack on Iran would seem highly unwise and hopefully not likely. Some sort of Trumpian Shock and Awe aerial attack seems much more likely. But, I wonder how effective it might be so long as the Ayatollahs are in power? There is no Team B to replace the theocracy is a complication. It's likely any significant military intervention by the USA might be a Pandora's box move. Not sure why we can't just let the Israelis deal with Iran. Why is Iran our problem (if Russia is not)?
Remember when Trump was the “anti-war” candidate, criticizing all our Middle East meddling? My how times change when one’s poll numbers are down…
Is America great again yet?
Good summary, thanks! Will we hear about Mexico soon?
Give the guy some time to actually analyze the data. 😆
Would it trigger another refugee crisis like in 2015?
Depends on the intensity of the Strikes. It is a good question. One that will not be dismissed in Military calculations.
It was 1979, not 1989, when Khomeini took over.