India Takes on the Shadow Fleet || Bonus Video
India's navy has begun seizing shadow fleet tankers in its exclusive economic zone. If India continues down this path, other countries will likely join the bandwagon, marking the end of the shadow fleet.
Disruptions to the shadow fleet wouldn't just impact Russia's key export income, but also global energy markets. With 3-4 million barrels per day funneling through the shadow fleet, everyone would feel that. India has maintained close ties with Russia, so this move comes as a surprise to many and signals a major realignment.
As I've said in other videos covering the shadow fleet, once the first domino falls...the rest will quickly follow. We'll just have to wait and see if India is willing to topple the first one.
Comments (33)
Looks like the placeholder photo got uploaded instead of the transcript. Any chance of that being fixed?
So how will the supreme court’s tariff ruling impact the future with India?
Lolz https://gcaptain.com/russia-executes-first-triple-lng-ship-to-ship-with-simultaneous-transfers-from-yamal-and-arctic-lng-2/?subscriber=true&goal=0_f50174ef03-82b510ce39-170562187&mc_cid=82b510ce39&mc_eid=86bcdba5d6
Cmon Peter.. if you are going to say India always sided with Russia at least go into why... What did the Americans do
You can Google India’s First Aircraft carrier, which was is ironically a Kiev Class Soviet ship. India is going to be India and we’ll probably keep seeing them doing more and more Indiay things because the only ones who complain are the Pakistanis and the Pakistanis don’t really win a lot in comparison.
Huh, what came to my mind first is that India is inking a big trade deal with Germany/EU so I would assume they would have to take a stance against Russian oil for that, but that didn’t come up in your analysis. Always love your takes, thanks for making the podcast!
I think this has more to do with India, and less to do with Russia. India has privileged access to Persian Gulf oil, so this is a great way for India to put the squeeze on China. And implicitly, Pakistan. Pakistan had been planning to buy more Russian oil for its refineries, so this naval intervention is a power play. This is a great way for India to let Pakistan know who is in charge.
This might be the first positive thing Trump has put together in his 15 months of administration. You should be bragging about it but that would upset his buddy Putin. As for India there's nothing like free oil.
Btw - Peter your hair is perfect! 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼🫡
So what impact does this have on Chinese manufacturing American products?
Peter has said it before, India goes in whatever direction they decide best serves their interests on any given day. Just last month, they had their picture taken as one of the premiere members of BRICS...bottom line - this could all reverse tomorrow.
Great video, thanks. It appears the choice is between Russian oil (a failing country with increasingly uncertain supply due to US and French tanker seizures.) Or a 'deal' to get oil from Venezuela and the open market. And it comes with the sweetener of crushing China, as India's belligerent neighbour. Perhaps Modi saw the tea leaves aligning.
I would like to think they suddenly decided to participate in buying oil on the market like everyone else, so that would be the close and efficient option. However, I suspect the closed door deal from Trump is possibly a little different to interest Modi and potentially more corrupt. So that leads me to consider cheap Venezuelan oil and Trump coin donations in exchange for a discounted rate.
I've heard some talking about Nordstream 2 making a comeback
Can I put "India joins NATO" on my bingo card?
They would probably try if they could, even though one of the founders of...BRICS.
Got to say this reported flip may be more of a flop when ALL is known.
Just did a quick AI: "Based on reports from February 2026, Indian authorities have not seized any Russian oil tankers in the last few weeks; instead, they seized three U.S.-sanctioned tankers linked to Iran off the coast of Mumbai. These vessels—Stellar Ruby, Asphalt Star, and Al Jafzia—were intercepted for suspected illicit oil transfers" I just bought a little more of OILU
To what degree is this India aligning against the shadow fleet as a way to work against China’s interest in cheaper oil from Russia?
I think that this is closely related to the negotiations Russa has with Ukraine. Trump wants the Nobel price after all.
“Bet your pretty ass” 🤣
Thank you for your diligence PZ!
You bring up a great concern. Does taking the oil out of china create a similar problem the Japanese felt pre WWII. Does that change the calculus for action in Taiwan to force bargains and negotiations
This story says those were Iranian tankers https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-seizes-iran-linked-us-sanctioned-tankers-steps-up-surveillance-2026-02-16/
Hair is reaching David Lynch levels of awesome.
Thanks Peter!
Does this mean China AND Russia may put “invade and/or nuke India” on the table? I mean, India may be about to crush TWO gigantic economies, in one act. Retaliation is still a thing, correct?
Also wondering this.
I wouldn't put it past India to seize the Russian tankers, off load the oil, and surreptitiously return the tanker to Russia for another load later. They then get to tell Trump "Woohoo, we did what you want!" and keep up the Russian oil getting to India. They have always screwed over the west in favor of Russia/Soviets. Why would they stop now?
Agree! Modi is sneaky bastard!
I still don’t get the justification of why the Indians would do this, if they are one of 2 major beneficiaries. How else are they going to get their oil and gas?
Free lunch?
Free oil! And ships