Armenia’s Not Getting Off the Struggle Bus Just Yet || Feb. 16, 2026
Armenia’s landlocked position between Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran has left Yerevan with few good options in the post-Soviet world. Armenia is one of Eurasia’s least-economically vibrant states; the fact that they bisect regional arch-enemy Azerbaijan in half doesn’t help, neither does their history with Turkey.
For decades, Armenia believed that aligning itself with post-Soviet Russia would help solve its chronic energy and security issues. Recent history—especially following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine—has shown the limits of Russian cooperation. While Iran has unusually good ties with Armenia, Tehran has precious little of anything to offer anyone at this time.
So where does this place Yerevan? Sandwiched between two enemies to the East and West, and facing decaying regional powers to the North and South, Armenias last, best and only hope is to either completely capitulation to the whims of an energy-rich Azerbaijan or… throw a Hail Mary pass to the Americans. It would still involving selling out completely to an outside power, but for the Armenians that will not be anything new.
Comments (22)
Better buy it and fix the reactor before another chinobel.
Kind of seems as though there is no particular benefit to Armenia existing as a separate nation. Except for that whole "we're independent" thi g, it almost seems like the area would benefit from being absorbed by an adjoining country?
No. No. No. Sorry, Armenia, but politics, geography, and just about everything else are against you. Armenians should carefully think about some sort of diaspora and then wait about 1500 years.
@ 1:43: "With the Russians locked down in Armenia.." Should of course read: "With the Russians locked down in Ukraine. "
But the US doesn't want to get involved in other countries business anymore...
Also, did everyone blink and miss the Armenian "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity"?
My understanding is the confidence in the nuclear plant, which is in a seismically active mountainous region, is based on extensive reinforcement of the structure (extra rebar in concrete)
Armenian lobby in US is fairly strong - if you are Trump, it's a nice thorn in the side for CA democrats. Also, any regime change in Iran would need a place to put refugees and need a country to mediate with the various non- Shia ethnic groups that would ultimately be competing for space. Also, it's just a nice poke in the chest at Russia in the Caucuses, especially as Georgia appears to be going the other way.
You mean Kim K….
They can’t afford some of the solar units that China is sending to Africa? Or is it that no one is willing to help them with power unless it comes with an “Off” switch?
How about the simple fact that the first holocaust genocide of over 1 Million was against the Armenians 110 yrs ago by the Ottoman's modern day Turkey and to trust them is crazy. 6 Billion dollars is a bargain too help that country and hopefully stop the extermination of their people. Hows that for a rate of return.
One reason to invest is because Armenians are hot AF. I support securing that genetic pool. Otherwise - might be good to have a base there…. Useful location if it can be defended.
I am OK with Armenia being up for sale. I am not OK with the USA being the sucker that buys it. Maybe the Turks are looking for some real estate.
What is The US interests be in "buying" Armenia? Projecting forward half a dozen years ... JD Vance/Maga ... Naaah ... a California or Pensilvania Democrat ...???... Naaaah. I think Peter, only You are interested in Armenia ... okay ... Maybe Bremmer too, as I believe He has mentioned that his Mother has Armeniain roots. Otherwise, Armenia is a one of those obscure places on the Earth that Most Americans ... IF ... there was a political ... something ... would say ... "what do We GET BACK in return" ... Which is The Appropriate question to ask. Investing in ... Armenia ...???... Political response ... Well- The Armenians have ...???... what ??? to return? The Big Thing about Investments ... is The Return on it ... Yeeah. So what is it? You left that part out. So please inform us ... Peter ... 💁
😄 ... Okay. I don't know if that is enough, Corey. No. There has to be some kind of "US National Interests" ... wether that is to be political Crafting/(Manufacturing ... (surely it will be ... some kind of WMD-Scale redux) ... I think Project- Protect Christian Nations Globally ... Americans will not go for that if it means 100+ Billions. And they shouldn't. That is not going to pass. Nope- There will have to be some kinda ... enormous Humanitarian Crisis ... but then again ... there is Gaza. The UN is not doing much there to speak of. I find a hard time seeing it. I think Armenia is Really ... in a Bad place ... unfortunately.
Building anything of value here would only put them in the crosshairs of one of their Neighbours? Wouldn’t cooperation with Georgia be more realistic? Assuming Russia was put on their place?
I've seen Chernobyl several times. If their nuclear power plant is that far degraded get them a bloody new one ASAP! The potential cost of an accident FAR outweighs the cost of building them a new one.
Armenia so poor, PZ got a tax deduction for doing this PSA. It’s also I guess, a super historic state (anyone who ever played Rome Total War knows this) with a larger diaspora than population: http://diaspora.gov.am/en/diasporas Like most of the rest of the world, PZ talked about it without using the G word.
what about its proximity to Iran? isn't that a factor?
Right. But if the U.S. "buys" Armenia, wouldn't that be a strategic advantage for a U.S. Air Base? I'm not that keyed in but I did think the U.S. striking Tehran was semi-hindered by needing to refuel. Not condoning it. Just an observation from watching other reports.
I assume the proliferation risk will be low since Trump is backing SMRs and several of those are based on TRISO fuel. SMRs can also be more easily brought into a remote location.
That’s not a great assumption. SMRs aren’t even really real yet, Armenia’s decrepit plant runs on Uranium, any enriched uranium anywhere is a proliferation risk, and the Azeri beat down of Armenia forced them to change their constitution. I don’t know why we don’t just send Coalie, he loves Armenians, a ton of them died in his mines in the early 20th century in Pennsylvania!