Japan Sees the Writing on the Wall || Feb. 10, 2026
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party just won a two-thirds majority in the lower house. This gives Prime Minister Takaichi a rare personal mandate and practically total control of the government for the next few years.
Now that the PM can act decisively, we could see changes in the U.S.-Japan relationship. Japan is still facing the same core problems: demographic decline, debt, and forever out of reach of its old economic weight. At the same time, the U.S. alliance is growing shakier by the day; we're not in the danger zone yet, but Japan is beginning to see the writing on the wall.
So, Japan could begin the process of constitutional change to loosen military constraints, but that's not going to come overnight. Japan isn't breaking away, just getting ready for the alliance to weaken.
Comments (15)
The Japanese lower house can override the upper house's "veto" with 2/3 majority. That was why it was important to have the super majority. But the constitutional change for its military has less to do with the US than China.
The JP upper house's role is more like the Privy Council + House of Lords
I’d have to argue that the current administration is uniquely stupid and subject to Russian manipulation - nothing is off the table as long as they are in actual power, but after the mid-terms the lame duck section will commence in earnest.
If we have them
But we want to hear about Kid Rock and the Half Time show. Just kidding. Just kidding.
More blood in the water for the EU to find. Keep it coming MAGA! It seems Canada would be a nice match as well once it builds out the oil and gas lines to the coast rather than to the Gulf. Ratchet up the drama and stomp your feet America - WINNING! 😉
Canada will not allow meaningful oil and gas lines to its west coast. Try again.
We aren’t invading Greenland and destroying our alliance with Denmark we aren’t blowing up our alliance with Japan. Jesus people I wish everyone would stop overreacting to Trumps bullshit. Countries manage just like people manage. Peter and the rest of you sound like Europeans. You all need to listen to Alexander Stubb. He’s constantly telling other European leaders to chill out and stop overreacting to everything that comes out of Trumps mouth. The Foreign Policy interview with Alexander Stubb. Check it out on YouTube.
I have listened to that interview. Stubb is brilliant, as always. The Greenland threat did change things. Carney calls it a rupture, Stubb calls it a transition. Regardless of the wording, the change is recognized.
I think 🇯🇵 is in a pretty good position ... their present Bond, semi-crisis not withstanding. A blip on the radar.
Their demographics are collapsing and their national debt one of the highest in the world. That is way more than a “blip in the radar”. You make no sense. What you’re saying has no basis in facts, it’s actually incredibly absurd, and you sound more like a deluded weeb than someone with serious thought on the matter. God, the “place but Japan” meme is so fucking apt.
Strengthening Japanese military capability makes sense MORE because of literal threats from Russia, China, NK, than Trump-related squabbles, imo. Japan is capable of taking a long view, which would include looking forward and past when Trump leaves the stage. Basically, I would think China is their elephant in the living room, at least militarily. Any issues with the USA would be more related to trade and economics.
I see a a Tri-Lateral alliance (at least) between Aus. Japan, So.Korea forming within ... 2032 ... ought2havbin sooner. Geopolitical things do not happen until they have to. Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam possibly Malaysia the Ten Years following that. It wasn't necessary UNTIL the present. Now ... it is The Present.
Trumps whole AI deal relies heavily on Japan. No way U.S. lets em go. I think Trump…idk what he does all day. But once one of the advisors or whatever remind him of that things might change. That would be crazy though if it went in the shitter.
The problem here is AI does not hold up to its promise and claims. It would only be fair if the AI bubble bursts into Trump's face. Personally, it would be far nicer if the bubble fizzles out, bcs a crash will hurt a lot of households. Unfortunately, the world isn't nice.