The End of Nuclear Arms Control || Feb. 5, 2026
The last remaining US-Russia nuclear arms control agreement has expired, which means for the first time in decades, we're in a world with no active nuclear arms control.
To be fair, it's not like the Russians were honoring those deals even when they were in place. And given Russia's war in Ukraine, negotiations for a new deal were a moot point. So, that leaves the world's largest nuclear powers without limitations on their nuclear arsenals. Which means any other nuclear-capable power will be looking to expand or acquire its very own nuclear arsenal ASAP.
There's a long list of countries eager to bolster security through nuclear armament, so a long period of nuclear proliferation is right around the corner...
Comments (41)
When it comes to the possibility of nuclear annihilation, no one has said it better. https://youtu.be/tOzG2eCXUPs?si=3YhBJarWoRHJ_-9q
99 dreams I have had, and everyone a red balloon…
Does Russia have the money, technical know-how, and infrastructure to develop new nuclear capabilities, let alone maintain those already existing?
Based on PZ suggesting proliferation by lesser countries it seems far more likely that one of the lesser "hot head" countries would be more likely to use a nuke... like maybe Iran (if they ever developed one). Though it does seem as though Putin might do something drastic if forced into a corner. Nuclear power plant accident as an example. I mean he did destroy a dam.
I’m not worried, old nuclear missiles are harmless compared to the new drones tied to strings.
I remember the question: What if the Russians hit the “big red button”… and nothing happens. The rockets just don’t work anymore. What do you do then?
If nothing happened when they pushed the red button it would be hard for anyone outside of the Russian system to know. Even if there were signs like all of the silos opening at once on satellite cameras, it would be difficult to convince people that Russia actually wanted to destroy the world unless the nation was fully occupied and we had access to all their documentation.
Do Russian nukes actually work?
No one knows. Not even the Russians.
I will post this in discord as well so people understand how screwed we are. In 1990, a DOS program called nukefix contained then classified formulas for calculating the odds of weapons use through strategic action, accident, miscalculation, etc. For 9 nucular armed countries whose risk of use per year each was 0.01%, after 769 years there would be a 50/50 chance. If you apply the formula to 20 nuclear armed countries (the likely scenario Peter describes) it's a 50/50 chance within 346 years. What these formulas DID NOT account for was that each country is not an island to itself: for every increase in nuclear armed nation, your probability of use individually will INCREASE from the baseline 0.01% because of conflict pairs (interactive complexity between countries with new strategic weight values) resulting from economic, cultural, and resource disputes between each new nuclear actor. ASSUMING each actor maintains the base reliability of 0.01% per year, the conflict pair interactions for 20 countries BY DEFAULT change to an aggregate reliability of 1.7% chance per year, or 50/50 chance of use every 36 years. And if JUST ONE ACTOR (North Korea, OR Pakistan, OR India for example) does not have the same rational reliability of 0.01% chance per year via miscalculation? If JUST ONE has a 0.5% chance per year as their baseline, the 50/50 risk SKYROCKETS to 3.3 years before use. This is the world we're tumbling into like a snowball headed for hell, and this is why the US backing away from their global security responsibilities is the single largest risk to sinking humanities survival odds within the next two decades.
That's stupid
When was the last time anybody wanted to take Russia lands? Who would want them? I don't understand that. The premise that Russia is waging war to prevent people from attacking and taking their lands . . . is that a Boogeyman Coming kind of thing? Is there another reason why Russia is so aggressive? NATO itself basically exists to protect the world from Russia ambitions, correct? I don't understand this. Unless I can understand this, I cannot understand Russia's interest in nuclear arms, because that interest in nuclear arms arises from its reasons for its hostile ambitions. Which just are not clear to me. Nobody actually wants Russian lands as far as I can tell. NATO is a huge expense everyone would be happy to never need again. What keeps this all going?
Russians have long memories. They still remember the invasions by Hitler and Napoleon and are convinced it could happen again.
You forgot India and Pakistan on your nuclear weapons list. And the Norks. Who else?
Russia has always been the thorn in our side, In the world's biggest problem. We should lump China into this issue. However if they became more defensive in regards to Russia's military drive we may see a day of Nuclear regulations.
...I prefer to hear news like this from Biscuit.
I am in a great mood this morning. Oh joy, a new Zeihan video to watch. Click play, … AAAAAAHHH!!
No wonder my uranium stocks are doing so well 😜
Wonder if this is gonna get the doomsday clock any closer to midnight. I personally don’t think this is really gonna move the needle, I mean, considering the Trump administration is actively seeking environmental damage from climate change and we have a health secretary out there, actively fighting for the spread of measles, I just don’t really view nukes as a threat right now.
I for one welcome the return of the nuclear doom that the 'Housewives of _________'-watching world so richly deserves!
Fordow is the future of deterence.
Id like to think if everyone has a Nuke there will be no more wars. 😂😂
Sounds like maduro's theory, give everyone AK47 for peace in their entire community. That works, right?
Will the Iron Dome have any deterence? It's in operational service in Israel. If a country can destroy a nuclear weapon over the aggressors land, might that deter them from launching it?
The Golden Dome will save us ! Wait I’m in Canada? The no mans land between Russia China and USA 🧟♂️
The fact our Chief of Defence had to answer a question about Canada acquiring our own Nukes this week is just mind boggling. What a world we live in.
Jesus, that was darker than I was expecting.
who ever would have thought of Japan and Germany having nuclear weapons as the responsible and sensible players in that space...?
Actually, if I think about it awhile, I think it's still a BAD idea.
@zelhan will I see you in Sun Valley at the TR finance conference???
My bingo card looks set for the next 15 years. Probably should’ve bought uranium stocks a few years back. But then again, duck and cover can be an excellent strategy in lieu of profiting off the madness.
Great, more more money sucked out of the economy for things we neither need or want.
Well... That's depressing. Rubio was asked about this on question time today and he said that for it to be meaningful, it would need to include China.
I suppose nuclear threat blackmail and extortion will proliferate, also.
What's to stop a couple of generals from selling it all to us for $10 billion and a Swiss chalet?
He was grinning at the end because he knows this will be quoted 15 years from now.
Well, it's back to the good old days of duck-and-cover. Nah, why bother?
Wouldn't a nuclear arm race bring down Rusian economy even more down?
My thought too. How are the Russians going to build more nuclear weapons when the Ukraine war is draining the coffers, not to mention all of those educated Russians who fled after the invasion?
Germany and Japan??
First one! Woot! Thanks Peter!