The Two-Speed EU of the Future || Feb. 4, 2026

The problem is not a Two-Speed Europe, especially as regards foreign relations and security. A Latvian president attempting to order a French nuclear strike, while conceivable, is not the problem. The problem is NATO wherein a Russian incursion to support an ethnic Russian uprising in [fill in the blank] Latvia (pop. 2 mil), Estonia (pop. 3 million) or Lithuania (pop. 3 mil) by treaty automatically triggers a war between NATO and Russia with the US, France and Great Britain each having a different opinion as to if/when/how to use their nukes and the NATO Theater Commander caught in-between. (Orban is irrelevant. He embraces the Russians, let him enjoy the comradery of 1956 and suffer the fate of Imry Nagy). The "elephant in the room" is the possibility that an American president must explain - quickly and convincingly - to the mothers, fathers, wives, husbands, sons and daughters of US military members and the voters why our loved ones are to be sacrificed for a country smaller than Charlotte, NC, and whose location 99% cannot locate on a map. This is George W. Bush's foreign policy legacy.

If it’s Doug Ford commanding American troops, that would be super awkward.

Not that they would, but what is to stop UK, France, Germany, Poland, Finland, others from joining forces separate from the EU or NATO and directly coming to Ukraine's aid?

the idea of a 2-speed-EU is also decades old, and it really is just an expression of current disagreements. eventually, there will be agreement, because if there is one thing the europeans are experienced in, it's consensus building. it may take time, but once the concensus is reached, there is no going back. when was the last time anybody in the US managed to agree on anything?

Orban has been a thorn for years. A single veto holding sway any meaningful change is ridiculous, and enemy states just need to affect change in one vote to stop Europe

If the TISZA party can win the election in Hungary this year, Orban might be out on his rear.

Create NETO, North Europe Treaty Organization, NATO minus Hungary, turkey and the US of A! Don't rely on purchase of US weapon systems so the US can't activate a software lock or refuse parts etc.

In the process of struggling through "Huntington, Samuel P.. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order (p. 2). Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition" and I do mean struggling. He's a political scientist, God help me, and he's writing for his peers, not the general population. He's sort of the PZ of political scientists in that he predicted pretty much what is happening now internationally. I'm tempted to construct a "Clash of Civilization..." for Dummies type of thing. I think my AI (CoPilot) is up to the task if I pose the right inputs. Fundamentally, though, he seems to indicate that the fall of "the West", rise of China, India, and so forth, are inevitable and driven by the fundamentals of what civilizations and nations are. In fact, the rise of MAGA, seems to have been inevitable given things like immigration, population collapse, and so forth. (Oops! I think I broke CoPilot. It is stuck in the middle of an answer and not responding!) 🤣🤣🤣 Now I don't feel so bad about my slow progress on the book!

0:41 "An age-old debate in Europe that goes back to the 80's" -- in the context of Europe I was expecting him to say the 1600's. I remember the 80's. Maybe I /am/ age-old!

I thought BREXIT was going to bankrupt the UK?? 😂

Another example of: "While Europe talks the talk, Putin walks the walk", today's headline, DailyMail: "Russia launches Winter Olympics cyberattack: Italy says it has thwarted multiple digital assaults linked to Moscow as opening ceremony nears." All part of Russian hybrid war. It's on. Russians think Europe is weak and cowardly. If I was running Europe, for this attack, , I would find a way to shut down the internet for Moscow and St.Pete and pretend I know nothing. But, THEY would know. But, Europe twiddles. It's time for Europe to FIGHT and WIN. All the fine speeches, hand waving, stat spouting, parades and planning committee minutes mean nothing at all. Nothing.

Europe has survived and thrived without the US before, I’m sure it will be fine without its main source of entertainment and processed food! I suspect that if the US continues the way it is, it will fracture into a similar conglomerate.

EU is a joke and won’t survive in the new world iteration

Why can’t they just toss Hungry out ?

Lol so an Upper and Lower House, basically. C’mon guys, just federalize already.

The EU still hasn't figured out Bosnia, I won't hold my breath on Ukraine. Very clear that no one considers the issue to be in their core strategic interests, otherwise they would have contributed troops long ago.

I’d say NATO has trained this ability to follow a commander from another nation for the last decades.

So for decades to come, continue to muddle-along, all-the-while, steadily fall behind the current Powers, and the emerging powers, (South-East Asia) until ... "something snaps." That is a policy of ... Chosen ... Slow-Death-Failure and Regression. From My View, coming from S.F/Bay Area/Silicon Valley ... that is Absurd Craziness. That is Suicide by self-inflicted 100,000 cuts, bleeding-out ... pointlessly ... because they REFUSE to consider an Alternative, Methodological System. That IS ... ineptitude. Or, please ... someone correct me. What am I missing here?

Putin has an answer for European disunity: The "New Improved USSR" from the Atlantic to the Pacific, yes, the Whole Enchilada. (Or, as much as he can get.) Seems to me his plan has more chance of working than the non-plan of Europe. He tries to make it happen while Europe sits on their ...hands.

A version of this problem is faced by Europe, USA, China, Russia and Africa. Most of them are several hundred years into iterating their neighbourhood models based on a history of learning experiences. Europeans remember what happens when they don't work together. I agree that Europe may be slow and bureaucratic, but it's better than some of the alternatives. They'll work around Hungary, which has upcoming elections. Many of their Davos speeches recognized and committed to moving faster. Putin motivated them to unite and move quicker and they seem to be doing the same with Trump and Xi. They may surprise us with what they can imperfectly achieve.

“Depend upon it, sir, when a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.” Samuel Johnson The old NATO based on US firepower is dead, though it could be reanimated post-Trump. But the worse things go for Ukraine, the more pressure there is to find some way to coordinate defense. A reformulated NATO, post-US and with a core of Germany, France, and the UK, could form the core and evolve. There really is an increase in defense spending, and NATO has announced a military exercise without US participation. Individual nations can make agreements outside of NATO. It can be messy but effective. No one wants to have to learn Russian.

Two speeds? Reminds me of the UN. The General Assembly vs. The Security Council. Everybody gets to vote in the body that decides almost nothing. Only 10 get to vote on the “real” issues, and five of those ten hold their seats at that table by something akin to “the divine right of kings”. And, of course, we’ve had close to eighty years of real world examples, to show us how well THAT has worked.

Why won't they implement a "runner up" (US before 12th Amendment) system of power/chairmanship where you may not be the body that wins but your bodies voice still has incremental power with lower bodies of their parliament? Plus, a French President with a German VP or vice versa would be A M A Z I N G!

"Whereas the US can make and enforce security decisions at the drop of a hat." - Yeah, just like ICE or some Greenland phantasies. Too fast is often a step back. You need a balanced speed for decisions, and yes the EU is too slow. Agree completely on the incremental change being not very feasable. Slavoj ŽiŽek wrote last week in DIE ZEIT, that Europe needs to get rid of the old Europe to build a more powerful one.

You know who loves Europe!?!? Coalie! https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/03/trump-administration-coalie-mascot-fossil-fuels