Feb. 2, 2026 - Daily News Digest

On this day: the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo is signed in 1848, thereby ending the Mexican-American War.

QOTD: “We have the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there, very close, couple of days,” [US President Trump] told reporters on Sunday. “Hopefully we make a deal.”

US/VENEZUELA/INDIA/THE MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME - US pitches Venezuelan crude to India as its Russian oil imports slow, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-pitches-venezuelan-crude-india-its-russian-oil-imports-slow-sources-say-2026-01-30/

The United States, which threatened to impose tariffs on India last year for buying Venezuelan oil, has told Delhi it can resume those purchases soon to help replace imports of Russian oil, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

India pledged to slash Russian crude oil purchases after Washington also hiked tariffs related to that activity, and India is on track to lower its Russian oil imports by several hundred thousand barrels per day in the coming months, according to the sources, who declined to be identified.

President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on countries buying Venezuelan oil in March 2025, and his administration ramped up a campaign against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom U.S. forces captured on January 3.

Since then, Washington has begun directing the Caracas government and plans to control Venezuela's oil industry indefinitely. The U.S. effort to supply Venezuelan crude to India comes as Washington also seeks to reduce Russian oil revenues that are funding the war in Ukraine.

The sources did not provide detail on whether the Venezuelan oil would be marketed by outside trading houses like Vitol or Trafigura or would be sold directly by Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA.

[India’s investments into processing heavy/ultra-heavy crude blends leaves New Delhi as one of the few places outside the US Gulf Coast, a handful of European countries and a couple spots in China as the only reliable refiner of VZ crude. -mnno]

INDIA/ECON/POL - Modi Takes Aim at Trump Threats With Budget to Shield India
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-01/modi-takes-aim-at-trump-s-threats-with-budget-to-shield-india

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to protect India’s economy from Donald Trump’s tariffs is coming into sharper focus.

The latest outlines of India’s plan to live in the new world order dominated by the US president came on Sunday in an annual budget announcement that was packed with support for exporters battered by US tariffs, as well as fresh backing for strategic sectors like rare earths, semiconductors and critical minerals.

Modi’s spending plan promised new outlays on infrastructure and an 18% hike in defense expenditure — a bulwark against the challenge posed by dual rivals China and Pakistan.

Despite those proposals, Modi’s government largely stuck to its debt targets and kept overall outlays in check. The budget avoided the broad-based tax cuts that characterized last year’s plan, while also steering clear of any new big-ticket splurges in a year when Modi’s party will face some tough election battles in key states […].

Shares slumped in a special Sunday session following the budget announcement — a pullback that investors blamed on a tax hike on equity-market transactions to curb speculation, rather than overall dissatisfaction with the new spending plan. The government also plans to borrow more in the coming fiscal year than the market had expected, a move that prompted a sell-off in bonds on Monday.

Setting the tone for her 90-minute budget speech to the parliament on Sunday, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman declared that India faced “an external environment in which trade and multilateralism are imperiled and access to resources and supply chains are disrupted.”

In the face of those threats, she called for India to “remain deeply integrated with global markets, exporting more and attracting stable long-term investment.”

Though not mentioned by name, the budget was clearly geared toward addressing new challenges posed by the Trump administration. Chief among them is the 50% tariff in place since August, aimed in part at punishing India for its purchases of Russian oil. The duties, coming from India’s largest trading partner, have battered labor-intensive industries, like textiles and furniture.

PAKISTAN/SEC - Pakistan forces kill 145 militants in two-day battle after wave of attacks
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-forces-kill-145-militants-after-attacks-balochistan-chief-minister-says-2026-02-01/

Pakistani security forces killed 145 militants in a 40-hour battle launched as a series of coordinated gun and bomb attacks across Balochistan left nearly 50 people dead, the province's chief minister said on Sunday.

Authorities in the southwestern province are battling one of the deadliest flare-ups in years, as insurgents in the resource-rich province bordering Iran and Afghanistan step up assaults on security forces, civilians and infrastructure.

ttackers dressed as ordinary civilians entered hospitals, schools, banks and markets on Saturday before opening fire, Pakistan's junior interior minister Talal Chaudhry said.

"In each case, the attackers came in dressed as civilians and indiscriminately targeted ordinary people working in shops," he said, adding militants had used civilians as human shields.

The banned separatist group Baloch Liberation Army claimed responsibility for the attacks, saying it had launched a coordinated operation dubbed Herof, or "black storm", targeting security forces across the province.

In Quetta, the provincial capital, the aftermath was visible in burnt-out vehicles at a police station, bullet-riddled doors and streets sealed off with yellow tape, as security forces tightened patrols and restricted movement following the attacks.

CZECHIA/POL - Tens of thousands back Czech president amid cabinet dispute
https://www.dw.com/en/tens-of-thousands-back-czech-president-amid-cabinet-dispute/a-75754342

Tens of thousands of Czechs rallied on Sunday to support President Petr Pavel in his dispute with the country's foreign minister.

In an escalating rift with the government, ⁠Pavel last ‍week accused Foreign Minister Petr Macinka of attempted blackmail over a cabinet post.

At the core of the dispute is Pavel's continued opposition to Filip Turek's nomination as a government minister due to his involvement in a series of scandals.

Police did not provide an official estimate of the crowd, but organizers said between 80,000 and 90,000 people attended the rally. Some participants waved Czech, European and Ukrainian flags.

"The unprecedented blackmail of the president by Petr Macinka is absolutely unacceptable. This has no place in a democratic culture," the independent Million Moments for Democracy movement said on Facebook.

In a post on X, Pavel thanked the demonstrators for their support. The president said he values people who are "willing to stand up for decency, truth, solidarity and mutual respect."

"I deeply appreciate all those who do not remain indifferent to what is happening around them and who feel responsible for the state of our country," he added.

On Tuesday, the Czech president made public the messages Macinka had sent, describing them as blackmail.

Macinka, now serving as both foreign and environment minister, threatened the president with facing consequences if Pavel keeps refusing to appoint Filip Turek.

"If I have Turek at the Environment Ministry, he [President Pavel] can have peace of mind. If not, I will burn our bridges in a way that will enter the textbooks of political science as an extreme case of cohabitation," Macinka wrote in one message.

Macinka called the text messages part of a typical political negotiation.

"Politics is not a discipline for princesses… it is a very demanding discipline. Everyone who is in top politics should show greater resilience," said Macinka on Czech television on Sunday.

HUNGARY/POL - Hungary's Tisza party maintains lead over Orban's ruling Fidesz, poll shows
https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-tisza-party-maintains-lead-over-orbans-ruling-fidesz-poll-shows-2026-02-02/

Hungary's centre-right opposition Tisza party kept an eight-point lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban's governing nationalist Fidesz party in January, a poll showed on Monday, ahead of a parliamentary election set for April 12.

Orban is facing the biggest challenge to his grip on power since Fidesz swept to victory in 2010, although the outcome remains highly uncertain.

Tisza is led by former government insider Peter Magyar who has said his party will tackle corruption, unlock billions of euros in frozen European Union funds to boost the economy, and firmly anchor Hungary in the EU.

The April vote will have major implications for Europe and its far-right political forces.

Orban, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, has often clashed with the EU on a range of issues while maintaining cordial ties with Russia and criticising Ukraine. The EU accuses Orban of eroding democratic values in Hungary, which he denies.

The latest poll, conducted between January 21-24 by Publicus Institute and published by daily newspaper Nepszava, showed that 48% of decided voters supported Tisza while 40% backed Fidesz, unchanged from December.

Besides the two major parties, only the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) would surpass the 5% threshold required for entry into parliament, the survey found.

FRANCE/POL/ECON - France set to pass delayed 2026 budget, ending months-long saga
https://www.reuters.com/world/france-set-pass-delayed-2026-budget-ending-months-long-saga-2026-02-02/

France should finally get a 2026 budget on Monday, when the expected failure of two no-confidence motions will allow the legislation to pass, heralding a period of relative stability for Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu's weak minority government.

Budget negotiations have consumed the French political class for nearly two years, after President Emmanuel Macron's 2024 snap election delivered a hung parliament just as a massive hole in public finances made belt-tightening more urgent.

The budget talks have cost two prime ministers their jobs, unsettled debt markets and alarmed France's European partners.

However, Lecornu - whose chaotic two-stage nomination in October drew derision around the world - managed to secure the support of Socialist lawmakers through costly but targeted concessions, boosting his stature in the process.

"It's a political success and an economic failure," said veteran political commentator Alain Duhamel on RTL radio.

Despite the still-elevated budget deficit of 5% of GDP seen by Lecornu, investors have taken heart in the new stability. The French government debt premium over the German benchmark has returned to levels last seen in June 2024, before Macron's snap-election announcement.

GERMANY/POL/ECON - Tens of thousands of transport workers walk off job in Germany
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/tens-thousands-transport-workers-walk-off-job-germany-2026-02-02/

Commuters across Germany faced freezing temperatures and empty platforms on Monday as tens of thousands of public transport workers walked off the job in a strike called by trade union Verdi, shutting down bus and tram services in most cities.

Verdi, which represents nearly 100,000 transport workers, called the strike after talks with municipal and state employers over working conditions stalled last week.

The union is demanding shorter shifts, longer rest breaks and higher pay for night and weekend work even as cities grapple with budget constraints.

The walkout affects about 150 municipal transport companies in all but one of Germany's 16 federal states, including Berlin, Hamburg and Bremen.

One of the largest coordinated actions in local transport sector in years, the strike began as planned, Serat Canyurt, the leading negotiator for Verdi, told rbb radio on Monday, adding that public transport operators were now expected to return to the negotiating table.

COSTA RICA/POL - Laura Fernandez declares victory in Costa Rica’s presidential election
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/2/laura-fernandez-leads-early-results-in-costa-ricas-presidential-election

Right-wing candidate Laura Fernandez has declared victory in Costa Rica’s presidential election after preliminary results gave her a commanding lead and her closest challenger conceded defeat.

The move early on Monday came after Supreme Electoral Tribunal said that votes tallied from 81 percent of polling stations showed the candidate of the Sovereign People’s Party winning 48.9 percent of the vote.

In her victory speech, Fernandez promised “deep and irreversible change” and announced that ‍Costa Rica was entering a new political era.

The Central American nation’s second republic, which began after the 1948 civil war, “is a thing of the past,” she said.

“It’s up to us to build the third republic,” Fernandez told flag-waving supporters.

The 39-year-old politician also pledged to lead a nation that is “respectful and firm on the rule of law”.

“Any law that is ineffective, that has become obsolete, that has become a hindrance to development, will be modified or repealed,” she added.

JAPAN/POL - Japan PM Takaichi's party poised for landslide victory, poll shows
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-pm-takaichis-party-poised-landslide-victory-asahi-poll-shows-2026-02-01/

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's party is likely to score a landslide victory in next week's lower house election, a survey by the Asahi newspaper showed, heightening the chance the country will continue to pursue big spending and tax cuts.

A strong showing in Sunday's election would solidify Takaichi's grip on her party and give a mandate for her expansionary fiscal policy, which could heighten concerns about Japan's finances and push bond yields higher.

"Implementing expansionary fiscal policy at a time the economy is at near full employment would heighten inflationary pressure" and weaken the yen, said Ryutaro Kono, chief Japan economist at BNP Paribas.

"The Bank of Japan may be forced to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes to combat the weak yen and inflationary pressures from expansionary fiscal policy," he said.

Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party is likely to well exceed a majority of 233 seats out of 465 seats up for grabs in the lower house, according to Asahi's poll released on Sunday. That would be an increase from 198 seats now.

US/IRAN/MIL - Before Any Strike on Iran, U.S. Needs to Bolster Air Defenses in Mideast
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/before-any-strike-on-iran-u-s-needs-to-bolster-air-defenses-in-mideast-faca35a9

President Trump’s promised “armada” has arrived in the Middle East, headed by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group, and sophisticated F-35 jets have moved closer to the region.

Trump has yet to say whether and how he might use force. But American airstrikes on Iran aren’t imminent, U.S. officials say, because the Pentagon is moving in additional air defenses to better protect Israel, Arab allies and American forces in the event of a retaliation by Iran and a potential prolonged conflict.

The U.S. military could conduct limited airstrikes on Iran if the president were to order an attack today, U.S. officials say. But the kind of decisive attack that Trump has asked the military to prepare would likely prompt a proportional response from Iran, requiring the U.S. to have robust air defenses in place to protect Israel as well as American troops, the officials say.

The military already has air defenses in the region, including destroyers capable of shooting down aerial threats. But the Pentagon is deploying an additional Thaad battery and Patriot air defenses to bases where U.S. troops are stationed across the Middle East, including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to defense officials, flight tracking data and satellite imagery.

Thaads can intercept ballistic missiles above the Earth’s atmosphere, while Patriots defend against lower-altitude, shorter-range threats.

“The air defense question is key—the extent to which we have sufficient materiel to ensure that our troops and assets in the region are going to be protected from some kind of Iranian retaliation,” said Suzanne Maloney, a former State Department official on Iran policy in both the Bush and Obama administrations.

U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, declined to comment for this article.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump “has many options at his disposal with regard to Iran.”

“The President has stated he hopes that no action will be necessary, but the Iranian regime should make a deal before it is too late,” Kelly said.

US/MIDDLE EAST/IRAN - Middle East Pushes for Iran-U.S. Meeting to Head Off Attack
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/middle-east-pushes-for-iran-u-s-meeting-to-head-off-attack-f54a7b19?mod=world_lead_story

Middle East powers are working to arrange talks between senior U.S. and Iranian officials in Turkey this week, pushing forward diplomatic efforts aimed at heading off a clash that risks sparking broader turmoil in the region.

Turkey, Qatar and Egypt are trying to set up a meeting that would include Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as well as officials from other Middle Eastern countries.

The two sides still appeared to be at odds on key questions over Iran’s nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs. But President Trump and Iranian leaders have expressed a willingness to talk in recent days, cracking open a window for diplomacy as the U.S. masses military forces and Trump warns of a strike if negotiators fail.

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump said over the weekend that the two sides were talking seriously. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on social media over the weekend that arrangements for negotiations were making progress.

U.S.-Iran talks still face important obstacles. Iran has informed regional mediators that it will only discuss its nuclear program, while the U.S. has demanded broader talks that would include curbs on Iran’s missile program and support for allied militias across the Middle East.

Iran also has continued to resist the key American demands regarding its nuclear program—ending its production of enriched uranium and surrendering its existing stockpiles.

Meanwhile, Iran worries the U.S. could be pursuing diplomacy as a way to buy more time for a strike, Arab mediators said. U.S. and Iranian officials were scheduled to meet for talks in June when Israel launched a surprise attack just days before the meeting.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has remained defiant in the face of U.S. military pressure. “The Americans should know if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” he said Sunday.

With U.S. forces moving into place, Middle Eastern powers have launched a flurry of diplomatic efforts that included an unannounced visit to Tehran by Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on Saturday.

[Airstrikes are unlikely to dislodge any sitting regime—especially Iran’s. What regional players like the Gulf Arabs and Israel are concerned about are the reportedly still sizeable numbers of ballistic missiles the Iranians have at their disposal. Iran’s few, middling strikes that landed against Israel still present Netanyahu with an outsized risk; Israel as a political system is one that is very sensitive to any number of casualties. And Saud Arabia and Qatar both have been on the receiving end of Iranian missiles, and wouldn’t like any more—even if impacts and damage were quite low. As both sides hem and haw and ‘negotiate,’ statements in recent days about denials of airspace and movement and fortifications of air defenses will likely mean very little. If the United States wants to bomb Iran, it will; it’s incredibly difficult to try and forecast the decisions and whims of a single individual. But what we can look at is evidence of past, high-yield munitions against Iranian targets (i.e., the so-called bunker busters against Iran’s nuclear sites). And we can look at the lack of a unified, organized, capable opposition party within Iran. Even if you could remove the entire clerical, political, and military arms of Islamic Republic with a snap of your fingers, there’s no one ready to step into the void. The best organized and armed communities are the separatist factions of Kurds and Baloch. I can’t tell you if the American administration is going to “intervene” in Iran, but we can say that unless the US has military capabilities that can eliminate Tehran’s missiles in pre-emptive strikes, and eliminate clerical and paramilitary leadership without striking civilians, and parachute  unifying/pro-Western leadership that can manage a multi-ethnic and multi-lingual population while repairing a shattered economy and a faltering water table, outcomes are unlikely to be easy or positive. The Iranians know this and think it gives them leverage. Iran’s neighbors know better than anyone the arrogance of both sides currently negotiating on their doorsteps and are rightfully concerned. -mnno]

GIFT LINK: The Secret Egyptian Air Base Behind Sudan’s Drone War
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/africa/egypt-sudan-drones.html?unlocked_article_code=1.JFA.O1he.Z8xxCuGQMDPu&smid=url-share

The airstrip sits next to giant crop circles at the edge of the Sahara. Military drones take off over enormous fields of wheat, leaving their covert base for one of the world’s biggest drone wars.

The base is in Egypt, hidden amid a vast, agricultural project in the country’s Western desert. But the targets are in Sudan.

The clandestine drone operation offers new evidence of how the civil war in Sudan — racked by famine, atrocities and tens of thousands of deaths — is morphing into a sprawling theater for high-tech drone warfare driven by the interests of rival foreign powers.

Satellite images, flight records and videos reviewed by The New York Times, as well as interviews with American, European and Arab officials, suggest that for at least six months, advanced military drones based at the Egyptian airstrip have been carrying out strikes in Sudan. Their target is the ruthless paramilitary group, the Rapid Support Forces, or R.S.F., which has been battling the Sudanese military for more than 1,000 days.

US/COLOMBIA/COCAINE - A Cocaine Boom Ruptured the U.S.-Colombia Alliance. Can It Be Repaired?
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/a-cocaine-boom-ruptured-the-u-s-colombia-alliance-can-it-be-repaired-8cf4e76e?mod=world_lead_pos1

Once the most reliable U.S. ally in Latin America, this country is now racing to mend ties with Washington after its leader fell out with President Trump. Its biggest challenge is controlling a record surge in cocaine production.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro is heading to Washington for a White House meeting Tuesday with Trump at a time when his country is producing almost nine times as much cocaine as in 2012. Heavily armed narcotics-trafficking militias have doubled in size since 2022. So much cocaine is reaching American shores that the U.S. has threatened to cut off foreign aid and sanctioned Petro for not doing enough to stop it.

Ahead of Petro’s meeting with Trump, Gen. Pedro Sánchez, the Colombian defense minister, visited Washington with a message that the country is cracking down.

The security services here say they are destroying a cocaine-production lab every 40 minutes. They seized almost 2 million pounds of cocaine last year, a record. And, they say, they have pinched supply so much that cocaine prices are rising.

“It’s reached its peak,” Sánchez said by phone, taking a break from talking to U.S. officials in Washington last month. “The rate of growth has declined.”

James Story, a former U.S. diplomat who led antinarcotics efforts in Colombia from 2010 to 2013, said Colombia has indeed interdicted a lot of cocaine, but the reason isn’t very impressive.

“You have record seizures of cocaine, sure, because you have record production of cocaine,” said Story, a former ambassador to Venezuela. “They’re producing a ton of cocaine.”

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COLOMBIA/HAPPY ACCIDENT? - Colombia's Clan del Golfo commander dies in river accident
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombias-clan-del-golfo-commander-dies-river-accident-2026-02-02/

The second-in-command of Colombia's Clan del Golfo crime gang - the country's largest illegal armed group - Jose Gonzalo Sanchez died when the boat he was traveling in to promote the gang's peace process with the government capsized in a river in the northwest of the country, according to reports from the illegal armed group and the government.

The boat carrying Sanchez, more commonly known as 'Gonzalito' capsized on Friday on the Esmeralda River, in the department of Cordoba, the illegal armed group said in a statement on Sunday.

The Office of the High Commissioner for Peace said it hopes that Sanchez's death would not delay the government's peace process with the illegal armed group. The Clan del Golfo crime gang was designated a terrorist organization by the United States in December.

Talks between the group and the government of leftist President Gustavo Petro are part of the administration's embattled plan to bring peace to the country after six decades of armed conflict.