The End of the Shadow Fleet? || Jan. 26, 2026
As in: France has seized a shadow fleet tanker suspected of carrying sanctioned oil under a false flag and has taken it to Marseille. Should this ship be formally impounded, the entirety of the shadow fleet would fall.
If a precedent is set here, everyone could begin detaining similar vessels. And it wouldn't be hard to rapidly clear the waters of these vessels via major maritime choke points. A maritime services firm has kindly offered to legally take possession of seized shadow fleet ships and dismantle them (most of these floating rust-buckets should have been scrapped years ago, but instead were used to evade sanctions).
So, the shadow fleet could fall within months, but that creates a new series of problems. That's 5 million barrels per day of crude going offline very quickly, making global energy markets quite volatile.
Comments (27)
Oil prices are a bit low these days, are they not? Removing some oil from the market might eleviate the current glut. That might result in higher oil prices as the counties that were relying on cheap(?) Russian and Iranian oil are forced to look elsewhere. I thought China was talking with Canada to see if there was a way for Canada to supply more of china's oil needs. Might suck for us in the l9ng run as gas prices would likely start to climb back up.
One can see an eventuality where the Iranians and Russians start to get grabby with commercial shipping in response. Do you foresee a new world where the rules-based order navies (RBONs?) will have to start shadowing Russian warships to stop them predating upon shipping? And the Persian Gulf would need heavy policing?
The Russians would have to game out the likely responses to thqt type of action, it's very hard to see how they would win. Their Navy is quite constrained in its operations dur to geography, and could be taken apart piecemeal.
Two of these tankers snapped in half and sank in the Black Sea. So, as a Mariner, I cheer for the shadow fleets removal.
Won’t this disruption of energy on this scale trigger economic instability and a recession? Like I get we’re basically in a recession but this just makes it worse right?
I'm curious, too. He said 5M barrels could vanish. There are about 100M barrels consumed daily in the world (source: Gemini). The US is largely self-sufficient, right? With some trading and refining work around the margins? (I was expecting us to be in a recession by now, too, but I don't think that's the case.)
Since our government is too scared to apply the sanctions t On Russiahis is the next best thing
Awesome reporting!
What happens to the assets that are seized?? It would be nice to see them go to the Ukraine, (yes, even Iranian oil - as compensation for the damages caused by their Shaheed missiles.) Somehow, I suspect the Venz. oil proceeds will go straight to Trump's pocket....
Upto the country that seizes the ship. Each will have their own "proceeds of a crime" type of legislation.
Here come the pirates! I do have a little issue taking other nations products. Wouldn’t Russia escalate in Ukraine with this? Wouldn’t China take issue? From a western perspective I see the advantage, and, I worry at destabilizing large nations. Yeehaw I guess 😅😳
Yeah, it would escalate to a negotiated end of the war.
Thank you. It is nice to see someone out there gleeful about something.
Peter, any news on the Chinese purges and rumors of American CIA infiltration?
Video coming soon on the first half of the question
Peter, it would be interesting to hear your opinions on the latest round of purges in the Chinese military
Coming soon!
Russians do not have any naval power to protect the shadow fleet.
You're a mean one. Mr Grinch.....
Any chance we could have something on the Chinese High Command and how recent developments will effect its ability to prosecute a war and whether the lack of quality leadership could lead to a miscalculation?
Good. They should have been doing this since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.
What is the legality of a country's military just stopping and seizing a ship in international waters? Is France engaged in piracy here, or are there exceptions?
LoL, you used the term "legal".
Invest in XLE
Hmmm now I'm going to have to buy a cheap product dumping electric bike from China...
Missy of them carry Russian oil. Russia won't like that, it will retaliate
PACO