US Trade Talks with the UK || Jan. 23, 2026
We haven't seen any real negotiations over the past year because the Trade Representative's office wasn't staffed. All that's been discussed are tariff levels, not full agreements, and nothing has been ratified. However, the Mother Country is the main exception to this lack of trade talks.
Since Brexit, the UK has been on the hunt for a major export market. With the US as the only viable option, the Americans aren't afraid to demand regulatory alignment and force the UK out of the European trade orbit. AKA - the UK might not have to switch to the imperial system, but they would have to accept just about everything else.
The UK doesn't have much leverage either, as going it alone isn't viable. So, the Brits will have to bunk up with Brussels or Washington, and it's a painful path forward regardless.
Comments (50)
Airbus going up in Boeing? Sounds stupid! Boeing is an American company in decline and, in addition to bad planes, has to deal with countries' hostile attitude towards the US/Trump.
Wondering if perhaps you should take a more indepth look at how Boeing is doing. They have most definitely had some problems of late. I think PZ even had a segment about them sometime ago. But if you check I think you'll see that Boeing actually reported a profitable last quarter, for the first time in a while. They have a back log of new planes on order. And just this morning I saw a report that UPS is retiring their fleet of MD-11s and replacing them with Boeing 767s. So Boeing isn't anywhere near done in the foreseeable future. Though it'd sure be nice if they could build a spacecraft that didn't leak hydrogen. 🤣
Peter this doesn’t make any sense. Remember the UK has a full fat quota and tariff free FTA with the EU. If the US price of a FTA with the UK (you can denigrate the UK as much as you want but it is a major export market for the US) is full regulatory alignment with the US, alignment with US agricultural standards, leaving Airbus (huh? Why?), accepting volume US agri-foods exports destroying UK farming, US emission standards, destruction of the London financial centre and its migration to NY and Toronto (huh?). If those are the terms and the UK has very little to offer in your view then….No Deal. It’s not even worth a nano second of negotiation. The US has missed a major opportunity to ‘capture’ an economy larger than Canada and Mexico added together by demanding a price so high it’s not even worth a moment of discussion. What a waste
United Kingdom should go with Brussels… So long as Trump is president No deal we make is worth the toilet paper that Trump probably signed it on
What I don’t understand about this geostrategist Peter Zeihan is that he always bases his analyses on the existing capitalist system of the past in order to make forecasts about the future—a system that requires continuous growth, i.e., ever-rising consumption—and then he brings in the demographic club. But all Earth-system indicators are currently showing that this exponential acceleration of all consumption, all resource use, all waste, the overall pressure on the biosphere, and the Earth’s carrying capacity for a population consuming like industrial nations do under capitalism has reached its limits. Even the freshwater cycle, for example, has reached a point where scientists are now publishing studies with titles like “Water Bankruptcy.” So, according to the rules of natural science, this cannot continue indefinitely—not for industrialized nations, and, due to the climate catastrophe, not for developing countries either. In that case, isn’t it actually an advantage not to have an overly large population—one that becomes increasingly difficult to provide for? It could even be an advantage, in a world of shrinking resources, to keep consumption at a low level thanks to a more “sufficient” population size and structure.
You haven't read the book "End of the World is Just the Beginning" All of Africa is dependent upon Industrial Agriculture which is dependent upon outside resources.. The Death toll will be in the hundreds of millions. Those countries which are self sustaining will prosper. Those countries, the short list ... The USA France Turkey Argentina ... and portions of SE Asia. The rest of the world will fall into 'Hard Times' when the international trade order ceases to function
Britain's current fucked situation is a real warning for the US.
very funny, I would think you in the usa are really fucked with this fascistic regime, looks like the mad orange ape will deploy the military inside your cities
Doesn’t it feel a bit “heavy” to think that while the few will prosper the many will fall to allow the few to excess? Who is paying for the data centers energy - the people. How is AI being paid for - the loss of income from middle and upper middle class people. Where does the finance economy and the services economy go when it is entirely AI and the Human Resources are no longer needed - lost income from the people. So, the money is exchanged not to people to buy things to grow the economy, the economy grows by corporations taking profit on paper and exchanging it between themselves. What happens when the people who spend having nothing to spend because the skilled labor (only industries not to be completely wiped out) have no one else to serve than the corporations? This is the world the tech bros are working towards. It is why the entire world wants to eliminate immigration. It will be hard enough to support people in your country without an income, but even harder to support people coming into your country without an income.
in all history country with immigration had advantages from the immigration, people just have to be open minded.
Perhaps Peter, it is time for the UK (and the rest of the world) to take a leaf out of Mark Carney's textbook and tell the Trump administration to foxtrot oscar. Food reg's .... you love our NZ cheeses when you're here. They do not caontain all teh chemicals that your favourite S cheeses do. Why then should UK agree to poison their population in the same way that you in the USA do? The corollary is that the UK's gun laws should match those of the USA .... trade agreement need to be WIN-WIN - if they are not ... then foxtrot oscar. China - even if your prognostications there of population collapse are right - will still be 800 million as a market. And, they will dominate much of the world economy for that reason. The USA is choosing to become isolationist again and so your market power will diminish significantly anyway.
Good comments Gary. But I will learn French and German as you suggest . For ultimately you and your fellow Americans gave us Trump . That’s not forgivable
German here, we all speak very good English, so you do not have to learn German, lets make EU great again together
Why can't the Brits have separate agreements with the USA and with the EU? Businessmen want to do business. Won't they just fudge the "regulations" to make a pence or two?
If UK levers their Navy, drones and Islands like Falklands to combine with other mid size countries to protect trade they may have a chance to replace USA. Japan, NZ, AUS, CAN, ICE, AFRICA, S. AMERICA, ASIA
UK will test forgiveness genes of EU, their Trumpists misled them. USA will test world forgiveness genes once Trump is jailed or buried. UK will show us the way.
Peter, you're forgetting tech advance in drones for the future! Drone Navies from everyone will police the seas. Drone air, Drone ships, Drone subs, Drone sailors. At tiny fractions of current costs, and in every basement and home that cares to make them. Sell your defense stocks, now.
The UK will never accept this trade proposal. This is dead in the water. The Brexiter's will have to accept what Theresa, Boris and Liz did on their behalf and go hat in hand to the EU and hope.
The UK is fundamentally screwed... before Brexit its biggest export was services to the EU... those have gone, because services are easy to move. We have no resources, no technology, no populace, a declining wealth amongst the populous. By 2030, we will have to have an IMF bailout because even with the HUGE tax rises we've had.... we still wont be able to pay back borrowing. The country is utterly done for.
what do you mean by no technology? The UK doesn't manufacture anything?
The Russians are collapsing, while Europeon manufacturing is being gutted by the Chinese. Who are exporting product at an operational loss, to keep their folk busy. The UK has spent almost a decade 'lost in the woods' and now, the 'best' advise from the 'Peanut Gallery' is for them to go back to the losers? Because they have a distaste for the current President USA. That is guaranteeing their economic stagnation, which while likely in any scenario, would be less painful, long term if partnered with the rising star of the USA and not the remnants of aged monarchies and continental ambitions.
EU here, from here it looks like USA is a falling empire with a very decadent elite, so I think EU and UK can prosper without USA
Most regulations at least in food are good measures for safety and to follow those is a wise idea for the UK
Most US food stuffs are considered to be full of poisons, Mark. It's the Genetically Modified Crops that keeps US food in North America.
As much as I emotionally favor a close relationship with the UK, I see no real practical advantages. Like the rest of Europe, the culture there has become way more influenced by the old world while the US is new world influenced. I also don't trust the "unity" of Europe. I don't want to become embroiled in another European war. Twice is enough.
So much emotion today, so little emoticon.
You could see that being relayed in the davos forum when nutdick...I mean Lutnik was talking.
You mean Nut-lick!
Trade partnerships are linked with security partnerships. In the current environment, there is only one reliable security option for the UK - Europe. This has been highlighted by the experiences of Canada and Greenland. Besides, Europe needs the UK navy. And that was before the Chagos backflip and humiliation of Starmer. It will be an uncomfortable un-Brexit for sure.
The Europeans will just have to 'Go it Alone'. Which is a 'No Worries' proposition, the Russians are about spent. With over a million casualties ... that's the point at which Peter Zeihan - CREATOR has said they either win or lose. The Russians are much closer to losing, then winning.
Brits will never move closer to USA while Republicans are in charge. They hate Trump as much as Putin. A substantial minority were conned ( like Poorer Americans with Trump) into renouncing Europe which is now regretted in regular poling . The special relationship has long gone and thanks to Trump America is despised
Good for US, another little inconsequential country the US will not have to carry to term
The populace of the U.K. is already experiencing impoverishment at scale—I don’t really see what benefit they would get out of tying themselves to our chaos.
Then they tie themselves to Germany and China - both of which are Dead Men Walking
The penny has dropped with UK that the US is probably not a reliable partner and given Joe Biden was not particularly pro-UK either it's unlikely that will change in foreseeable future. As you said Peter too much to swallow and the UK can't go it alone as we have now realised we are just another mid-size country. EU is the pragmatic option it's simply geographically nearer and culturally (whilst we might not speak the same language) as many research papaers have shown we actually have more in common with Europe particularly those countries in Northern Europe and Scandinavia.
Let me tell you: almost any school on the EU mainland teaches English from the first grade now. A second language is usually French or Spanish, so we’ll get along quite well. By the way, I’m from northern Germany, and our local dialect, Plattdeutsch, has more in common with English than with any other language.
The current government won't lock in with NAFTA. But Farage will.
That’s the fear for sure. Farmers are incredibly nervous. Nigel would get a whole lot of tractor traffic if he tried that.
They won't bend to usa w trump in office. They esp. Won't give up Limbaugh as a financial center. They would rather do deal w EU AND keep the money biz
Disagree with this. If we agree to any of that our economy is dead. Trade hasn’t stopped with the EU, it’s just a bit more complicated. We’ve joined the Pacific trade block which ones up Japan as a natural trading and security partner and signed with India. Putin going tonto has helped our standing in Europe and we could leverage a couple of our strengths (defence production and capital markets) to recalibrate a closer relationship with the EU. I think if Biden was in charge your analysis would hold up but Trump flip flops so much you just can’t do a deal with him and expect it to hold. NAFTA is basically dead at this point.
Peter seems unaware that the UK has a full FTA with the EU and in practice it has made little difference to UK trade with the EU
UK needs to talk to Canada about approaching Brussels as a cohesive unit, and shun NAFTA (which Trump is trying to kill anyway.)
That isn't realistic. Canada is not ever going to adopt EU or specifically UK infrastructure standards, regulation, etc. As much as Trumpists say Canada is all socialist, they don't know what they're talking about, because it generally is a lot more like the US.
Doesn't the UK already have an _extensive_ free trade agreement with the EU? Why doesn't that count as aligning with the EU, when it's far more extensive than NAFTA is?
The import and export protocols and expense is shit. Much worse than pre Brexit. The loss of revenue as a result is brutal. If the world doesn’t implode and we can manage to keep the midlands from bringing Farage in, I don’t doubt further realignment with Brussels is on the horizon.
Shitty food and shitty planes…. Sounds like a shitty deal
Oh I'm sure that we will soften our negotiating position if they throw in the crown jewels to let Trump and Melanoma wear
Brexiters keep banging on about "...we hold all the cards..." when it comes to trade talk. In the end - big fucks small.....
As a U.S. citizen, I demand! that we get an exclusive trade deal inked right now, with one English company for no other reason than pure and selfish desire to see thinks with my name on it. https://www.marstonsbrewery.co.uk/product/marstons-old-empire/ I think the current administration will understand that motivation.
Jolly good!