Questions about Prigozhin’s insurrection? Ask them for our next episode of ‘This Week in Ukraine’

How are Russian elites viewing what happened? Does Putin still have control, or is there blood in the water and we're all just waiting for the frenzy?

I'm wondering about Lukashenka's role in all this. I think it's unlikely he played as big of a part in this whole drama as the Kremlin (and he himself) are saying, but a bunch of war criminals moving in to Belarus can't be a good thing. Could it be that Lukashenka still has amibitions to have a leading role in the Union State? I'm particularly curious about the legal status of his role as chairman of the Supreme State Council of the Union - does that put him in pole position to be head of an eventual Russia-Belarus Union State in case something happens to the Kremlin regime? (Of course, I'm hoping and thinking the Belarusian freedom fighters will prevent their country's independence from being given away, but something just feels off about the way Belarus has been dragged into this Wagner circus.)

What's the prediction for Prigozhin - polonium, novichok, or hotel window? More seriously, the most recent news I've read says that the Wagner mercenaries still in Ukraine can either go home, leave for Belarus or join the regular russian army. Do you have a prediction about what most of the mercenaries will do? How do you think what sounds like the dissolution of Wagner as an indepedent military force in Ukraine will affect russia's military prospects? Will attempts to integrate Wagner mercenaries within the russian army destabilise the russian army, or strengthen it?

My comment for discussion is the role that strengthing the governmental, economic, civil, and cultural institutions in Ukraine has played in Prigozhin’s challenge to the Russian MOD. During Putin’s control, we have seen significant factionalization and corruption in Russia. In exchange for their loyalty, Putin allows his supporters compete among themselves to accumulate wealth, power, and prestige. Often he allows them to disregard internal and international laws. However, if Putin feels they are not significantly loyal, they tend to fall out of windows. Russia’s attack on Ukraine has been a thinly veiled attempt for Putin, his supporters, and corrupt individuals within Ukraine to seize Ukraine and divide it amongst themselves. This recent incident with Prigozhin is fascinating in that he, Prigozhin, decided that it would be more advantageous to fight with Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov for a share of their current wealth, power, and prestige than continue fighting in Ukraine. This implies that enough has changed over the past two years that Prigozhin has shifted his cost-benefit analysis away from attacking Ukraine to attacking others. At least for Ukraine, the takeaway is that strengthening Ukraine’s governmental, economic, civil, and cultural institutions has caused at least one Russian faction to shift from attacking Ukraine and turning on itself. As Ukraine’s institutions and armed forces continue to increase in strength and stability, largely through anti-corruption measures, more Russian factions will lose interest in attacking Ukraine. While talking about what might or might not happen in the Kremin is fascinating. The primary objective remains to strengthen Ukraine until no one in Russia thinks they can come out ahead by attacking or destabilizing Ukraine.

I have a thousand questions in my mind, it is hard to choose... Some commenters in the West emitted the hypothesis of an "arranged" coup attempt in collusion with Putin for an ulterior motive. I'm sceptic, because of their reaction : they looked unprepared, some elites fled, and there was no grand theatrical gesture benefiting their image. So here is my question : how plausible is the hypothesis of a "false coup attempt" and, if so, what would be a worthy motive for Putin? And, second shorter question : How do you think it can affect the war, for Ukrainians? Дуже дякую, love from Québec, Canada.

Hi! Here is my question: although the strength and capacity of Wagner's presence in Belarus post-mutiny has yet to be determined, how worried should Ukraine be about security threats originating from Belarusian territory given the announced 8000-man Wagner base in Osipovichi and its assumed nuclear shield after Russia transferred some nuclear arms there? And relevant reporting: https://kyivindependent.com/nato-leaders-urge-response-to-wagners-redeployment-to-belarus/