What's next in Russia's war: Beyond the counteroffensive. Panel discussion with the Kyiv Independent and Michael Kofman
Dear Kyiv Independent community members,
For the past months, the world’s attention has been turned to Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive – with many experts predicting that the degree of success of this operation will determine the course of the war. Without a decisive Ukraine victory, the war may turn into a stalemate, allowing Russia a chance to regroup troops.
On Thursday, June 22, Kyiv Independent reporters Illia Ponomarenko and Francis Farrell will join prominent military analyst Michael Kofman to discuss the next stage of Russia’s war. Kyiv Independent editor-in-chief Olga Rudenko will moderate the panel discussion.
You can register for the event here. Once registered, you will immediately be sent the webinar information and automatically sent a reminder one hour before the event.
If you have any questions, please let us know.
Comments (4)
My dad would like to know how it is possible that all these weapons (new tanks, etc) can get to the front without being targeted by the Russians. How do the Ukrainians keep these weapons save? And how much do the Russians know of troop movements within Ukraine? Many thanks :)
One of the skills the the UAF have gotten really good at is dispersion, better know as spreading out. This war has been different from other wars because of the ability of both sides to 'see' deeply behind enemy lines. Mainly because of the advances in tactical drones, it is much harder to hide. One way to handle this is to spread troops and equipment out widely enough that an air strike (either ground based or air base) can not hit enough valuable stuff to make it cost effective for the Russians to waste weapons shooting at targets which they don't have a likely hood of inflicting damage. Something to keep in mind is that dispersion is hard both from a command and control perspective as well as a logistical perspective. It takes a great deal of skill and organization to fight from dispersed positions. One critical thing to watch for with the new counter offensive is how effectively the UAF can: 1. Consolidate their dispersed troops into a elements hard enough and strong enough to deliver attacks at specific positions at specific times. 2. Attack quickly enough that the enemy does not have time to redirect longer range and more powerful weapons at them. 3. Disperse (of disappear) back into spread out units which the enemy can't effectively hit. A second factor which comes into play the closer a unit or piece of equipment comes close to the front is moving quickly and often. There is often a delay between when then the enemy sees a piece of equipment and when they can direct fires, such as artillery or rockets, at it. If the Ukrainian unit can move quickly and quietly, they won't been where the enemy thought they would be with the fires arrive.
As Ukraine looks forward, I keep returning to the big questions: 1. How strong are the government and civil institutions which will provide stability and a foundation for growth? 2. How strong is the support of the population for reforming and strengthening these institutions? 3. Is the population confident that the reforms necessary to strengthen the state are possible? Or is there a sense of resignation that corruption is so ingrained that nothing will improve? A niche interest for me is, How is the infrastructure for travel and trade between Ukraine and the European Union progressing? How is the shift from Russian to European rail standards progressing? Is the efficiency of truck and car traffic across border crossing improving? Is the corruption in customs and border patrol improving? Finally, How is foreign language education evolving in education? Is there a shift in emphasis toward Western languages from Russian at all levels of education?
Hello David, Thank you for your comment. I will add these questions to the list for the panel discussion. Best, Brooke