An Auto Journalist Takes A Crack At The Vibecession (Turns Out Things DO Suck!)

The latest round of centrist-liberal internet discourse—which, thanks to our increasingly-online elected officials and pundits, is simply American political discourse—posits that the United States is actually doing just fine (economically, at least). The argument goes that the average American is richer and more materially comfortable than ever, and negative economic sentiment is a mirage based on "vibes".

As someone on the bottom half of the K-shaped economy, this grates on me for a variety of reasons, but it has proven difficult to rebut the myriad chart-based arguments about the economy's health in Bluesky-length 240-character posts. After all, the constant cry from the centrist-liberal commentators is that they have hard data to back up their positions, and those arguing the US is going through an actual recession are simply basing it on a gut feeling. Rebutting every single argument proffered for why the economy is well is basically futile, because there are so many different ways to measure something as complex as the entire American economy.

That said, if I could just break off a small chunk of the problem to examine, perhaps I could finally justify, with hard data, why I believe Americans are materially squeezed to the margins. There is one field that I am intensely familiar with, and virtually every American is dependent on to exist in the country we have built: the automobile. So here's my zoomed-in look—with the data to back it up—that Americans are genuinely struggling.

PART ONE: HARD DATA SHIT ACTUALLY SUCKS

Cars are virtually required to participate in the American workforce, with 78.4% of U.S. workers using a car/truck/van to get to work. (For comparison, only 3.7% of Americans use public transit to get to work.) Roughly 92% of American households have at least one car, for a total of over 284 million registered vehicles in the U.S. While in some cases people can work remotely, that rate has been dropping precipitously since the pandemic was declared "over" and return-to-work mandates were issued.

On top of societal need, cars are frequently the most-expensive or second-most expensive asset most people own, which means that a vehicle purchase is often a massive impact to personal finances for all but the wealthiest people. In addition, cars wear out, meaning that eventually, repair costs will almost certainly force the purchase of another vehicle. As a result, I believe this makes vehicle cost a good proxy for a rough estimate how expensive it is to participate in American society.

All following charts are via the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), unless otherwise indicated.

The average amount financed for a new car hit an all-time high as of Dec '25 at, the last month for which there is FRED data, at $41,742. This makes sense; the average new car transaction price (ATP) is up 3.5% since last year to a whopping $49,725, close to its all-time highest.

Lest we believe that number is just due to inflationary pressures making dollars less valuable, here's FRED data showing that adjusted for inflation, cars are vastly more expensive in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) dollars than at any time other than a few months in 2023, when they were a few tenths of a point higher.

In addition, finance rates for those new cars are near historic highs in the post-GFC era, with average loan rates solidly above 6% for the past two years—significantly higher than the sub-5% rates seen for most of the 2010's, especially when we consider that average loan lengths float near their all-time high at a whopping 70.3 months.

As per Edmunds, the loan data gets worse the longer you look at it: average monthly payments for new cars are at their highest ever, at $773/month, fueled largely by smaller down payments, more expensive cars, and higher interest rates. Compounding these higher payments is the fact that an increasing number of buyers are opting for super-long terms (> 84 months), which now make up a record-high 22.9% of new car loans.

Assuredly, a skeptic may say, this applies just to new-car buyers. What about used car buyers, wisely saving their income by avoiding the initial depreciation hit? Well, unfortunately, that's just as bad.

PART TWO: HARD DATA SHIT ACTUALLY SUCKS EVEN IF YOU BUY A USED CAR

As of December 2024 (when the dataset was discontinued), FRED measured used car loan lengths at some of their longest-ever, at 65.7 months, indicating buyers had to stretch payments for even used cars over a longer period than ever to afford the monthly payments.

Average loan amounts for used cars, as of December 2024 (when the dataset was discontinued), also hovered near an all-time high of $24,148, eclipsed only by the very peak of post-pandemic supply crunch pricing from 2022.

Rates for used cars, of course, also hover at historic highs as of December 2024 (when the dataset was discontinued), at an eyewatering 16.54%, which has likely helped drive these longer loans. Since all these datasets have been discontinued, Edmunds has continued to report near all-time highs for its own used-car pricing history, indicating that in the past ~year there has been little movement towards affordability.

Indeed, the dataset for used cars that FRED hasn't discontinued, the Used Car/Truck CPI, indicates that used vehicles are roughly the same degree of unaffordable that they were a year and a half ago. This represents a massive jump over the pre-pandemic baseline, even as it has somewhat normalized off its absolute worst peak in 2022.

In Q1 2026, across both new and used auto loans, 60% of new loanholders are underwater (i.e. they owe more money than their car is worth) and almost 20% of all car loans are to subprime buyers, according to Cox Automotive. Both of these data points suggest buyers are getting increasingly desperate to afford their vehicles.

PART THREE: HARD DATA SHIT ACTUALLY SUCKS EVEN WORSE ONCE YOU OWN THE CAR

Unfortunately, once an American has bought a car (new or used), their finances are going to take further hits.

Car parts have never cost more, in inflation-adjusted dollars, in American history than they do right now.

Car repairs have never cost more, in inflation-adjusted dollars, in American history than they do right now.

The cost of car insurance has never been more, in inflation-adjusted dollars, in American history than it is right now.

All of this financial pressure and it's fairly easy to understand why auto loan delinquencies are now at their highest levels since 2010, in the immedate aftermath of the GFC.

PART FOUR: YOU AREN'T EVEN GETTING ANYTHING FOR YOUR MONEY

The general neoliberal response to "everything is unaffordable now" is "well, have you considered that things are better now?" i.e. while things cost more, people are being given more for their money than ever, and these intangible quality of life benefits are what's driving the rise in prices. With cars specifically, it's fairly easy to show that no, people are simply getting screwed.

For example: despite these ever-higher prices for ever-larger cars, Americans are still feeling unhappier than they have in decades about their purchases. J.D. Power has found that new-car problems are being reported at their highest levels since 2009, largely due to issues with vehicle software, which have pushed overall vehicle dependability ratings downward.

It's not that most cars have become lighter on fuel, either; since 2015, gas-powered vehicle efficiency has largely stagnated, with increased fuel economy averages driven solely by vastly more-efficient electric cars. Those EVs cost significantly more than equivalent gas cars, and have primarily gone to buyers at the very top end of the market. Even at their premium prices, EVs and PHEVs still suffer from even more problems, on average, than gasoline cars do. If you'd just like an inexpensive, small gas-powered car, those basically don't exist anymore, and the ones that do are bigger than ever.

When it comes time to pay insurance bills, Americans have higher (> $1,000) deductibles for their insurance than in years prior, as well, thanks largely to the extreme cost of both cars and their repairs. When Americans get in accidents and have to file a claim, they see their cars totaled at higher rates than ever, and if they do qualify for repairs, their newer cars with more advanced safety systems take upwards of three weeks to get out of the shop.

Those safety systems also frequently fail to bring material benefits on dangerous American roads, thanks to cars that are larger and heavier on average than ever before. Per capita, American roads see fatalities at a rate somewhere between Kyrgyzstan and Syria. This is more than double any of our wealthy G20 peers, and the increase is largely driven by our sky-high rate of pedestrian and bicyclist fatalities and the ludicrously absurd number of average miles Americans drive per year, thanks to our suburb-heavy society.

PART FIVE: ALL OF THIS PALES IN THE FACE OF THE FACT THAT MASKED MEN ARE ABDUCTING YOUR NEIGHBORS EXTRALEGALLY AND WE KEEP MASSACRING CHILDREN OVERSEAS FOR NO REASON

Even if somehow the sole area that Americans were financially struggling in were car purchases (and it's not, at all), an easy explanation for American's dire feelings about the economy and their society could be found by pointing out that we live in a fascist state. It is still fascism in its early stages, of course, but look outside your window.

We have an unaccountable secret police abducting our neighbors for civil immigration offenses roughly on par with speeding tickets. Our neighbors are then shipped to concentration camps built out of old Amazon warehouses where they are left to rot in cages without contact with loved ones and legal assistance, get sick, and even die. If they're lucky and survive, we might just ship them off to a country they've never been to and can't speak the language in, and have absolutely no recourse at all.

Overseas, we started a historically unpopular war by blowing up a girls' school and massacring over 100 children; since then, we have held basically the entire world's necessary commodities hostage while disrespecting our entire military and losing massive amounts of vital war materiel for no apparent strategic reason. Our primary partner in the region continues to commit a genocide despite growing domestic opposition to our continued aid.

We have, at the time of this writing, basically no recourse to any of this beyond hoping that the midterms go well (i.e. Democrats win, the secret police do not suppress the vote) and then we can perhaps tap the brakes for another two years of unchecked executive rule by Truth Social post until a different president can take the reins; every other possible candidate that has been advanced by the opposition party at this time is relatively unpopular or unknown.

Americans are bleaker about their futures than ever, largely because they're presently miserable. Even if the economy were doing well (and I truly believe it isn't, for most people), our society is crumbling before our eyes.

In short, yeah, the vibes are bad.