Creating an Idiot-Proof Option Selling System
Comments (27)
https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-105000-on-february-7?tid=1738700790268 here it's even more free cause you can just take the delta from the optioon chain, it's 14% on polymarket and 0.09 delta on options
Have you tried to structure a spread that replicates the payoff of the polymarket leg? For example if you're short the call long yes on polymarket those yes shares have a capped payoff while the option loss is unlimited. You can figure out the right spread that gives you essentially a binary option. When i've tried to do it it's all an execution game, because in order to do the arb you've got to leg the spread to get great fills on the options, tho sometimes things are so dislocated it's easier like in the beginning of 2024. Could probably setup a really good strategy around this tho if you know how to code.
Okay but what if Ben we instead put all of our money into Tesla weekly options and constantly do this?
This could be a far better and simpler idea
One more thing I should have clarified is while this is intended to be an idiot-proof guide for selling GME options, it's probably not the best idea for beginners. This is more for intermediate to advanced idiots so please be careful.
Hey, have you seen the mispricing of probabilities of bitcoin touching a given price on polymarket and the biance option chain? It seems massive, and I'm assuming options are more right cause of the higher liquidity but I might be doing something wrong
using GBM to calculate the probability of a touch
Hello Ben! :) I Have a question unrelated to options… how do you feel about Ross Cameron the warrior trading dude?? If you have heard or seen him.. I get the feeling he is bad News xD I’m really interested in an analytic review of his content and what you get out of his character if anything at all… also the YT video of the complex adaptive systems you posted ages ago has me laughing out loud but i am also intrigued
day trading youtuber should raise red flags
Hi Ben, new here, did you make a covered call or cash secure put video by chance? great work!
Hi glad you like the videos! I had a cash secured put video that is now unlisted, but I'll send it to you.
thinking of doing this on amc but the weird but frequent iv spikes seem really scary
That might just be part of the pain of doing this
changing my ibkr trading permissions for this one
Lol please don't come after me if this goes tits up
Good stuff. I personally do not want to live with the blowup risk. So I sell the 30 delta strangle and buy the 5 delta call. You will still make money. I think the money that you need to save for your potential static hedge is not worth it. If you don't need that, then you can trade slightly bigger which counters the cost for the call. Let me know what you think.
This is not a bad idea at all imo. I've thought about doing this as I could also do it in Robinhood and pay 0 commissions on options.
Hey Ben have you ever traded 5 min orbs
Hey not specifically
Any videos on trading indices?
Not that I can think of I don't trade them much
what's the expected return with this strategy assuming historical IV premium stays the same in the future
It's really impossible to say specifically because it depends on so many different things. For example how actively you're managing the trade, how your broker margins you for short options, there's luck involved, different people will be able to endure bigger drawdowns and more variance. I'm trying to get 30-40% on the margin used in the strategy tho
Consistent low premium OTM option selling 📈📈>>> degen gamble on TRUMP$
I'll keep telling myself that :_(
Alright which one of you is retiring from TRUMP?
Which one of us is going to debt from TRUMP?