About Learjet

I would like to echo the sentiments of Markus Robinson below. Denys, your analysis actually diminishes ignorant speculation. You say yourself, we can't be sure until the final report, which will be a long way off in the future, but meanwhile you add a large measure of clarity to a highly uncertain situation. We're lucky to be subscribed to you.

Hi Denys, would it be possible for the stabilizer to be ripped off during the decent? I'm not an aircraft expert but if the wings iced up couldn't the stabilizer be ripped off at that speed?

Well said Adam! Denys thanks for your comments and input.

In general I do share the assessment of Denys and Adam K., but two things came to my mind at an instant. One, we have a dramatic change of atmospheric conditions, especially in areas rather close to large bodies of water, i.e. oceans etc, in proximity to the equatorial regions (did you notice the changes in hurricane season?), so icing at that altitude near a TS can be considered as the new normal. Two (as of my own experience I barely but luckily walked away from...), once the horizontal stab suffers a stall from icing, the pilot loses control along the pitch axis, resulting either in a sudden pitch up or nose dive. A pitch up at FL370 usually and quickly leads to a fully developed stall of the wings. Without any H-stabilizer authority this could be the end. In case the pilot holds the column full aft, the H-stab would experience extreme aerodynamic load once the aircraft descents/falls into warmer air, the ice melting off and lift re-establishes - structural damage up to detachment of the H-stabilizer on a T-tail could be the consequence... Eternal flight to the aircrew and my sincere condolences to the families of the persons onboard!

Well said Adam and yourself Denys. The first time I saw this devastatingly sad story I saw one misogynistic comment and realised of course there'd be loads of them. Some people need to have a word with themselves. She was only 20, my daughter's age, with a promising career in front of her. Bless her and the other eight souls on board, may they be at peace now.

I feel terrible for the family. The female kept her head together till it no longer mattered. She was amazing in her final moments. But the family and loved ones will need to endure her very public death. I am mortified and very sad for them.

So sad! incredibly sad!

Denys, don't apologize for your speculation. You are a trained pilot analyzing possibilities based upon your years of experience as a pilot. I found your analysis (which you caveated as speculative) thoughtful and intelligent.

Thank you Denys; typically I follow your Ukraine channel, but this was well done, thoughtful and compassionate.

I hope that they find the missing elevator.

Not going to watch the video - I don't need to hear that.

And given the cloud, and reported turbulence conditions it was highly likely to encounter super cooled water droplets can occur

Super cooled water droplets can occur down to around -49c sadly

😭😭😭😭😭😭😭 I don't understand...that stabilizer thing fell off?? Oh yes, Adam owns a plane, ex Air Force 😭😭😭 So ... condolences to the families 😭😭😭

Denys, as a commercial pilot, how would you play this scenario in a 737?

Did you know that the first Learjet was based on the Swiss P16 Ground Attack Jet?

I'm sorry for them (pilot) to be in that situation. She was doing a great job in that kind situation. Thank you, Denis.

Deny's confirm the pictures of the crash are accurate. Also thought same about the elevators but your slow motion confirmed it. Local weather has been unsettled and curious with thunderstorms in November ??

Thanks again Denys. Let's hope the black box is found intact. The crash site looked frightening.

I tell you guys, if you haven't heard the audio for the pilot's death, do not do so. That has to be one of the most horrific things I've ever heard; chills just went down my spine. Anyone who owns a jet like this should have it grounded immediately, no exceptions, until an investigation can be done into any of the flaws. A pilot online thinks it might have something to do with the tail or whatever.