New Promo Card Trading

I have had this requested a few times and we are finally in a new promotion! Although I try to cover new promo card trading a few times a year let me reiterate it is a very advanced trading method that provides a high level of risk. 

I consider myself one of the best in the word trading with new cards, but I only hit a 75-80% rate on it! This means that I will lose 1 out of every 4 I try and if you are uncomfortable with that, it's likely not a method that will appeal to you! 

Experience is the key in success with this method, but I try to keep no secrets from you all! These are all the factors I tend to look for in new promo card trading! 

1. HYPE

Each year is a little different, but there are always players who play incredible in-game or are super hyped by content creators. 

In the last few years some examples include Felix, Bruno Fernandes, Kent, Adama, Mendy, etc! If a card has an extra name value it will add a lot of value to the card. From the leaked FUT Birthday team the standout is Mendy and I expect an outrageous price tag on him. 

You can also keep an eye on the Futbin popular page. I don't think Futbin has ever clarified what formula they use to develop that page, but I believe it's by most searches. This well help display what people are interested in! 

2. Position Scarcity 

When looking over new cards we have to figure out which cards should be most valuable and enticing for people to change their teams. There are some leagues that are really weak in certain positions. 

La Liga has a lack of ST - Inaki should come out today

Premier League has a lack of RW 

Ligue 1 has a lack of RW (a little better with Diatta) 

Cards that come out in these positions will naturally be more in-demand as they can quickly improve a team. 

Analyze positions that are weak compared to those that are strong. There are so many amazing LW/LM options this year it dilutes them a bit. 

3. Supply 

This is huge for analyzing new promo card trends. 

The first thing we should check is the pack weight on the new promo cards. This can be anywhere from 1.5 to 5%. Of course, the higher the weight the more supply and this can really add up through Lightning Rounds. 

Next, we have to account for saved packs. I ran a poll on stream yesterday and it showed around 80% of people had saved packs for today! To me, this should produce a much larger supply than those 50K Lightning Rounds. It will look like they have crazy pack weight, but people are also ripping open saved packs! 

This leads us to our 1st buying opportunity. 

After the first 15-30 minutes of a new promotion you may see new promo cards get too low. This is a combination of that heavy supply coming in, undercuts and the inability to find the cards right away! They simply can get too low and rebound after all those initial packs are opened. 

Remember, Lightning Rounds are usually sold out within a few minutes and people list their cards instantly. This gives them an opportunity to rise after those first 15-30 minutes. 

This is a situation in which I will very very rarely shout cards to buy. For one thing, there often isn't many listed low. Secondly, if you cannot sell them before the next LR they often crash. This makes it the most risky approach. 

I lost 12K on this card. If I didn’t sell it on my first listing, I would’ve lost 100K on this single card.

Analyzing supply can be as simple as counting pages. If you see the pages of a card decreasing you likely saw their maximal supply and demand will begin overtaking supply increasing prices.

4. Demand

If the above approach does work, it will instantly provide us with some information regarding demand. If a card is consistently rising between Lightning Rounds it shows it will have a great opportunity to rise well when supply ends. 

A huge tip I have is keeping track of open bids. There are many times in a new promotion where people are bidding WAY higher than the current buy now. This shows demand once again and it will naturally increase prices. Remember, bidding is people fighting for a card and if they lose, they will get a different one. 

I personally also try to add the few of the cheapest buy now to my watchlist. It will tell me how fast cards sell and show their demand. 

Now, let's chat about the other 2 potential buying opportunities with the key factors above - 

Buying at 8-9 PM UK 

This buy time can be optimal as we should theoretically see a peak of supply here. Following the opening of all the saved packs, 50K packs and 100K packs we tend to see the most supply. Surprisingly to most, it's not usually after 125K packs. 

Last promo, this was shouted at exactly 8 PM UK for reference

Part of this reason is simply because those that Spend Fifa Points list their cards after the pack openings and can take a while to get some liquid coins. If you think logically it makes sense, but you do have to think about it! 

In this case, the cards showing crazy demand often rise into 11-12 UK before dropping overnight. 

Lastly, there can be a great buying point late at night UK anywhere from 12-4 AM. This tends to be the safest as you can already see a lot of information on the prom cards and cards naturally dip overnight. With EU asleep it reduces buying power and it naturally increases when they wake up to continue Weekend League. 

You can apply the same concepts to most new cards including TOTW and MOTM like you see above 💰