Web App to Full Release Market Movements

Hey Guys, 

I got asked about this a few times in DM’s and thought it was post worthy! The market moves a lot during the first week as users get the game at different times. 

If you read our “Trading Basics” series this relates heavily to supply and demand. 

Starting September 30th on Web App you’ll see the market rising exponentially. No Fifa Points can be added until EA Play, so this is just welcome back packs, trading and SBC’s. No one has much of any coins to start with, so as coin totals increase so does spending. In the first hours, you’ll see tons of open bids of cards going 5-10K, but could be worth 30-50K the next day. This is all due to inflation. 

On October 1st, once EA Play begins, you’ll see a steep rise with the Fifa Points added. Players can now afford some cards they want for their team. In previous years, Premier League cards have been the best risers and I expect the same this year. Secondarily, I would look at Bundesliga. Other cards that do well are often French or English players in particular! 

The market will rise with inflation until October 6th. This will be the Champions/Ultimate Edition Access. On this day, you will see a drop in the market particularly 80 and under cards. If a card retains their price during this period, expect them to be a great riser. 

The market then tends to stabilize on META cards until full release, October 9th! Here, you will likely see a small (5-10%) drop on meta cards BRIEFLY. 

In essence, the market will drop slightly each time there is a massive gain in users due to them opening packs with primarily Fifa Points, but also SBC’s! 

How can we use this information? 

Let’s look at a few examples from last year to get some perspective! I’ll use some META cards we referenced already! 

Lucas 

Web App, September 19th  21K 

EA Access, September 20th 36K 

1 Day Before Champs/Ultimate Edition, September 22nd 50K 

Champs/Ultimate, September 23rd 46K 

You see how it went down slightly on the Ultimate release? This can be profitable for trading or knowing when to buy sell! If you sell a META cards a day before, you can likely get a significant better price on these release days. These are Futbin prices, so I am assuming he was available at times for 42-44K! Saves 6-8K! 

I noticed this trend is relatively consistent. The biggest drop-off is actually on Ultimate Release compared to the full launch. 

Another example -

Rashford 

Web App, September 19th  39K 

EA Access, September 20th 63K 

1 Day Before Champs/Ultimate Edition, September 22nd 70K 

Champs/Ultimate, September 23rd 68K

Again the savings/trading may be marginal, but I think it's vital to note the trend is consistent of these META cards dropping around 5% on Ultimate Access launch.   

With this knowledge, I would recommend selling META cards October 5th and looking to buy them again on the 6th! A lot of snipes will be available with so many opening packs. 

I wanted to note that there was a similar impact last year on full release, but it happened so quickly Futbin wouldn’t display it well. Again, we’ll see a drop on META cards. If we think realistically, the drop will likely happen from around 4-8 PM UK as most users will be on playing at that time. 

The data doesn’t show it well, but it’s a great time to look for open bids and sniping as well! 

Jake