Bundesliga Specials/What to Note
Hey friends! So, you have probably noticed by now that most out of pack specials which link with the current major league(s) in packs absolutely bang on Thursday? You may have noticed that it works well at low budget, with cheaper links allowing users to round out teams; like how IF / SIF Doucoure used to bang every weekend league! By now, you likely understand why we focus on certain positions too based on price ranges and scarcity of options.
The Bundesliga graphs highlighted something to me (gmax) that I hadn’t noticed before! They highlight the price a well-chosen player is going to rise into Thursday rewards! Let me show you what I mean by this with some examples. I want you to pay attention to the daily chart that Futbin displays as default:
Note the bottom right corner of the Gnabry’s IF graph, from early TOTS. I want you to notice the U / V shape sell off (around May 1) and the recovery. Isn’t it cool that the card returned to its previous value? Here are another two RW examples showing the same trend (different shapes because different scales):
Figure 3- SS Rashica
So how can we learn from this? Let us imagine a scenario where Jake shouts targets with buy prices early BUT you aren’t in a position to take advantage. You are busy day trading, buying / selling other investments, and before you know it, it’s Wednesday and all of the shouts are up 10%! Never buy an invested card, right? Wrong! We can use these data trends to our advantage and learn that it’s okay to buy late IF, with good data and logic, we can be confident there’s further potential to rise.
Personally (gmax), I was looking at Gnabry around 75-80k late Wednesday night and turning my nose up at it; I had been flipping him 60-72k since Sunday! Well, armed with this data and information, and by reading the graphs, I could have been confident that he was prime to rise (/ recover) further.
Below are some other examples of this trend in different positions to emphasize the point:
To save you all some time, I can confirm that Varane, Militao, Ramos, Capa, Hazard, Griezman and other La Liga specials did a similar thing albeit with tighter graphs (i.e. TOTS came 1 week earlier for them). However, they all quickly suffered from sell off as people liquidate post Weekend League to ready themselves for more coin sinking content, alignment to new red picks, and so on. The drop off is less dramatic week by week as more and more meta squads become locked in.
So how do we apply this to Serie A and Ligue 1? Easy, we assess the new TOTS squad and identify positions that are underserved by volume (available options in position) and / or budgets (i.e. only expensive options available). That allows us to target players who should do well as link investments.
Secondly, we go graph hunting! We look for players that have suffered dramatic sell offs and fit the profiles we’ve seen before (Note: See Ben Yedder specials for Ligue 1, LOL!).
For Serie A, consider the following:
2 GK | 1 LB | 1 RB | 4 CB | 1 LM + Obj’ | 1 RM | 5 CM | 5 ST
Lots of central positions are covered by low, medium, and high budget options
Areas of potential:
Full Backs: Theo IF / SIF; Hateboer SS
Wingers: Lozano FB / Rebic MOTM / IF Insigne / Dybala SIF / Mertens SS
Strikers: Lasagne FB / Insigne Scream
Center Backs: Juan Jesus RTTF
Buy price? Buy time? Sell window? Read the graphs and focus on the positions most underserved and focus on the price ranges which are less impacted by current TOTS options
For Ligue 1, early looks to invest in during sell off:
All Ben Yedder Specials
Ikone FS
Moses Simon TOTS
Select Mbappe / Neymar Specials (High Budget)
Gold Neymar, Mbappe,
FFS Kehrer, Kamara, UCL Kimpembe
Lala (weird one, but not seeing many RB's in predictions and none in the league)
Fodder - Thiago Silva, Marquinhos, Di Maria, Raphinha, Slimani, Osimhen, Pablo (Saturday-Sunday generally a good buy time)
Emerson/Lodi are clever investments going into Ligue 1 considering 2 CB's will likely be Brazilian and possibly a 3rd in Pablo. They also have a massive lack of LB/RB in the league, too!
Alright, this is Jake here! Great work from Gmax outlining some of the patterns we've seen thus far! This helps us build data to really push to those lacking positions! Last week, we did really well nailing most looks!
Some Serie A cards are already past their peak with investors catching on. For example, we shouted Lozano on Wednesday aropund 45-50K and he reached 70K already! That's an absolutely massive return. Keep in mind, most people buying are investors. Why? Well, as you can see by the prices, not many are looking to play Serie A teams this weekend after JUST forming a Bundesliga side! Some will, but very few!
Juan Jesus still has room to climb following G's guidance from graphs!
The other note is factoring cost of other CBs. Since De Vrij is so cheap it’s going to limit the rise
I would also put more emphasis on investing in Ligue 1 earlier as people continue to notice the trend. Sunday/Monday should be great. I can pull prices from the cards listed above, but if you see a price you like before then or before my post don't hesitate to go in!
Remember, you will see a lot of Serie A links start to move most around Wednesday as people complete the Guaranteed SBC! This is simply because people get at least one player in their team and then rewards amplifies this. It really look like a lot of people will be getting central players leaving room on the wings IMO!
I'm not rushing to give prices as the market will stay a bit lower as the Serie A TOTS is low. This is why you see the big movement come Wednesday typically!
Jake