Radio War Nerd EP #392 — Prigozhin Kaput

After reading more of Wrong's book I'm now certain Habyarimana's plane was shot down by the RPF on the orders of Paul Kagame. Apparently it was treated as an open secret in many RPF circles. The book's subject, Patrick Karegeya, the former Rwandan intelligence chief who became an exile and was killed by Kagame's assassins in South Africa, was open about it as well. The most damning piece of evidence, though, is the missile itself. (Only a small part of this info is in Wrong's book) Two weeks after the shootdown, refugees discovered two missile tubes. The tubes were empty, which meant they had to have been used, and given the recent events in Rwanda it is almost certain that they were left behind by the team that shot down the plane. The serial numbers of these missiles were recorded and, after consultation via Moscow, it was determined that these missiles were from a batch that had been exported to Uganda. Given the RPF's extremely close ties to Uganda, this is basically a smoking gun- indeed, other missiles proven to be possessed by the RPF are from the same batch. This pdf, along with Wrong's book, lay out an open and shut case in my view. The RPF shot down the plane- nobody who studies the conflict gives any credit to alternative theories at this point. https://repository.uantwerpen.be/docman/irua/e6c298/reyntjens.pdf

Traumatic Brain Injury may be the story of Yevgeny's mutiny. I know a number of people who have it and they can make very illogical and self-destructive decisions and then are willing to die on that hill.

I remember the emergency episode when Soleimani got killed. It was important as the world was suddenly on the brink of a war between U.S. and Iran. This case is different. No real urgency or possibility of a global impact. Rehashing rumors and insinuation, some rather ridiculous, didn’t add much value IMO. It seems to me that Mark got stuck mentally in Russia of the 90s, where he rubbed shoulders with criminals and gangster businessmen, some of them getting occasionally whacked. He didn’t notice that Russia has changed since dramatically, with a whole new generation having replaced the one of the 90s. They are much more law abiding and disciplined. Mark is seeing ghosts of the past instead of the reality filled with mostly decent people in the military that wouldn’t even consider executing an illegal order. The times are different there. Yet in Mark’s head they are all just thugs, criminals, and incompetent leaders at all levels. BTW, I found this analysis of Prigozhin’s death much more relevant (and shorter) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGTe9Bwq9kg

helicopters dont just become a rock if you lose power, look up helicopter autorotate videos, they can stay airborne for quite a while

The smart money says Yevgeny most likely has a new face and is laughing all the way to his Panamanian Bank. Maybe you'll bump into him in Italy John. How much longer do you think the war would last without Zelensky? If he had an accident at home? Like Trotsky did.

This man escaped the dirty fates, Knowing that he died having asked for ‘fucking unsalted sunflower seeds and how many times do I have to remind you,” as he died. Darkness, nothingness of human after-death, be careful with this guy he’s a handful

Could you do an episode on the Rwandan Civil War?

Holding out for Prigozhin pulling a Babchenko

Senator John Tower was another one.

First JFK Jr. and now Prigozhen? This is why you let the professionals fly the plane folks, stay safe out there.

the 9 other people on the plane were his squad? that's some 47 Ronin shit right there, if so

It's impossible to believe that a showman like Prigozhen would stage his own death, go into hiding and keep his mouth shut. Good discussion once again.

Well the case for the Tutsi shooting down Habyarimana's plane is a lot more complicated than "the Tutsis won so they must have done it". Firstly, the Tutsis who would have shot down the plane were RPF- these are NOT the same people as Rwandan Tutsi- their cadres had spent most of their lives in Uganda fighting with Museveni, and therefore they were not only physically separate from their fellow Tutsi in Rwanda, but they and their families were safe from the genocide. Furthermore, some former RPF cadres have claimed that they were part of a strike team ordered by RPF leader Paul Kagame to shoot down the plane. This is not open-and-shut evidence- lying to outsiders is something of a pastime in Rwanda, apparently. However, these claims should still be taken seriously. Given how ruthless Kagame has been both before and after he took power in Rwanda, I wouldn't put anything past him. Furthermore, there just isn't a lot of evidence that the Hutu shot down the plane. The best that I've heard is largely circumstantial- i.e, Hutu extremists in the capital seemed ready to execute the opening stages of the genocide as soon as they heard the news. Compelling evidence, but as I said, circumstantial. I'm currently reading Michela Wrong's latest book, Do Not Disturb, which deals directly with these questions. I know you've mentioned her book on Eritrea on this podcast before. Unfortunately I haven't gotten to the part about the Habyarimana assassination, but I'm eager to hear her take on it. That assassination, along with the death of Fred Rwigyema, is one of the great mysteries of the Rwandan conflict. Overall, given everything we know about Kagame I think it's more likely than not that he ordered the shootdown, but we may never know for certain.

When they find his teeth, I’ll believe he’s dead. Mostly because it doesn’t matter or impact my life either way

Anyone got a link to that letter by Alexei Navalny mentioned at the start?

Walter Reuther another suspicious one

Can't believe that prigozhin would fly his plane into a missile like that

Why do you guys basically take it for granted it was someone in Russian leadership who killed Prigozhin? I'm not saying it's not plausible or likely, but it seems like there's plenty of other possibilities to consider instead of just foreclosing on alternatives right away. Also you mentioned Utkin early on but didn't talk about him too much. I've seen here and there that Prigozhin hasn't been like the absolute top leader of Wagner and was basically brought in and placed as their PR guy, so whoever was actually making decisions (like maybe Utkin) wasn't Prigozhin. I would be interested to know the sources you're getting your info about Prigozhin and Wagner from (I'm a pretty new listener to this pod so apologies if you've discussed this in previous episodes. I'm working my way forward chronologically so far so I haven't listened to many of your recent episodes about Ukraine). It seems like Wagner and Prigozhin are ideal characters for Western narrative spinning. Also I'd really like to know more about Shoigu. I know he's been around since Yeltsin. I hear both that most Russians rate him as second or third most trustworthy after Putin and that this idea is totally made up. It seems like there were definitely some legit grievances with him over the past year and a half but that Prigozhin was also completely making stuff up. Since Shoigu doesn't actually have any military experience, it seems like his role isn't as a like supreme tactician/strategist, so I'm not sure why he would be threatened by Surovikin, though obviously I get why Gerasimov would be. And I do see Prigozhin as at least making appearances like he was trying to rival Shoigu from a sort of peer position. Also apparently in the earlier part of the operation prior to Surovikin being brought in there were a lot of problems with the Russian military command West, or named something like that. Like I think they have (or had then, I haven't followed all the restructuring going on closely) West, East, and South command sections broadly, and that all the major problems were coming from the West section, which was finally addressed conclusively when Surovikin was brought in. I don't think that it's a sufficient explanation that Prigozhin just like got unhinged from being around so much traumatic stuff on the front lines. I mean it totally could be I guess, but after his attempted coup thing, I saw some speculation that its timing could've lined up with an (unsuccessful) attempted Ukrainian offensive which, if successful, would've potentially made his actions much more compelling. I can't remember more specifically right now but it was pretty involved speculation, not just some throwaway statements. Also just FYI I remember seeing on twitter that people were tracking Prigozhin's private jet movements pretty much right after the agreement that he'd go to Belarus and people being like uh why is his jet going back and forth to Russia so many times? So that all was out in the open right away.

Thanks for the episode! Rest in piss Prigozhin!

Its a misnomer that your completely fucked if a helicopters power goes out they can do "autorotation" where the blade spins in the opposite direction and generates lifthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KayzJetqnrI (your only partially fucked in that case).

Hope y'all are all eating Dawgs for our boy. Do feel a little sorry for his family then I remember he did stuff like crack open convicts skulls with a sledgehammer hopefully this awful war comes to a ceasefire soon

Love a good RWN emergency episode.

I’ve been waiting 24 hours for this

He got senator wellstoned. Or his pilot was polish