Radio War Nerd EP #363 — Trillion Dollar Pentagon Baby, feat. Andrew Cockburn

can anyone supply a link to the study mentioned in the episode regarding the Soviet's collapse due to its internal military industrial complex?

I really don't understand this "Russian military incompetence" line you guys are taking. As I understand it, the Russians' strategy in Ukraine is similar to their strategy in Syria: to bait the enemy and grind them down while preserving their own troops and equipment. Bakhmut has been an absolute catastrophe for the Ukrainian forces, which is why the Pentagon has been officially advising the Ukrainians to withdraw for the last week or so. It's becoming clear that many, many more Ukrainians have been killed than Russians, not just in Bakhmut but over the course of the entire war. Russia decimated Ukraine's initial stocks of tanks, armored vehicles and artillery, exhausted Ukrainian ammunition supplies, and has since destroyed or depleted every Western shipment of weapons and ammunition that has reached Ukraine to date. This is a war of attrition which tilts heavily in Russia's favor, the consequences of which are reverberating through the entire West. The neocons have said that this proxy war is about bleeding Russia's productive capacity and souring Russian public opinion on Putin, but it's actually been the West that has faced these very problems. Not only are European NATO countries furious with the US over the pressure put upon them to give of their own limited stocks to this conflict, but internal US politics have also been negatively affected: just look at the debacle that was the Speaker of the House vote. Because Ukraine cannot produce its own weapons, it must rely on its Western sponsors, who cannot hope to keep up, due to the productive inefficiencies discussed in this very episode. And now, even top officials in the American military are now openly worrying about having enough equipment to compete with China in the Pacific. And so far, none of the endlessly recurring media predictions about Russia running out of ammunition, or failing to keep up production, or failing to mobilize enough troops, or collapsing under the economic sanctions have come to pass. Everyone understands that this is a proxy war waged by the US against Russia, so it seems strange to me that you guys wouldn't take into account the terrible consequences this war has had for America and Europe in your analysis of it. There's more to this war than who controls Bakhmut at the moment.

Kind of insane that America was more afraid of nuclear war when the enemy was ideological, and is shrugging at the doomsday clock now that the only thing left to kill over is rare earth metals. I can imagine why you would be more willing to risk it for pure resource wars vs ideology (how willing are you to die for ideals vs raw earth) but it's still insane.

Just a few minor tweaks to a very interesting and very timely interview/discussion. 21 B-2s were built. By the time they were all brought up to the Mod 30 configuration, program costs were over 50 billion so each plane cost substantially more than 2 billion. Of course the Pentagon claimed the per airframe cost was much lower (if you don't count the program costs unrelated to actual metal bending, of course they are). One crashed on a runway in the Phillippines, resulting in the most expensive scorch marks in history (pilots ejected safely so humor is permissible) and another recently caught fire and may be a loss. The remaining 19/20 have been used I believe in both Afghanistan and Iraq, penetrating undefended airspace at tremendous cost and expense. The B-21 is essentially the same airframe with updated (read even more cumbersome, untested and untestable) electronics. As for the V-22 Osprey, in steep descents the thrust from the twin rotors hits the ground and bounces back to the aircraft. Too much rebound and the rotors essentially stall out, significantly reducing thrust. Losing thrust while coming in for a landing is rarely a good thing...I still hope that you will do a show on structuring the military to actually be useful in a reasonable future scenario- e.g. no surface ships (they are only targets if I recall a remark from Gary correctly), unmanned airframes carrying suicide drone missiles, far fewer tanks (again, only targets), etc. I think everyone knows war with China is a non-starter under any set of circumstances. First, it would devastate the US economy. Second, it would see all our carriers in the vicinity of China sunk. That would make the admirals very sad. Thanks for your podcast- I've learned so much over the years and look forward to learning more. Jonathan Penn

Great interview, thanks guys. Re: the question you raise about whether our leaders are conscious of how insane their policies are. We're all familiar with cults like People's Temple and Heaven's Gate, which included some pretty intelligent and accomplished people. Is there a cult of neoliberalism? Watching Victoria Nuland's recent testimony, I felt like I was watching a cult member. Her sense of certainty combined with malice is deeply disturbing.

Please clean your plate dear; the lord above can see ya. Don’t you know Americans are starving so we can keep tens of thousands of troops in Japan and South Korea (to the tune of Alice cooper’s billion dollar babies)

great episode. When you're in the Old White Bean(/r), will you do an episode on local wars? Apart from Hampstead being bombed in WW2, the pub is only 9ish miles from Hadley Green (battle of Barnet, 1471) and only a few minutes from Jack Straw's Castle, pub on the alleged site of something or other to do with Jack Straw (Peasant's revolt, 1381). OK not that exciting... maybe one on Glasgow football hooligan wars, Inter-City Firm vs Style Mile Vandals or whatever?

I often wish you guys posted more of these episodes on YouTube so that I could entice friends to join your Paetron. This show would be an ideal candidate for sharing. Excellent interview and top-notch guest.

Related to the previous episode, I came across this on youtube. It is some recollections of a British observer of the Civil War: https://youtu.be/ct4NZGnElNs It includes the battle of Chatanooga and George Thomas is mentioned. If the link doesn't work the channel is "Voices of the Past" and the memoirs are of Henry Y. Thompson.

Isn't it likely that the Chinese military is developing the same way the US military has for essentially the same reason - it's very profitable to build expensive crap and the contractors who are going to extract all that profit are very well connected? I feel like we should give the Chinese the credit of potentially being just as corrupt as anyone else!

Can't wait to see you In London! You guys are right by my commute!

Michael Kofman at CNAS in one of his shows talked about the relevance of the A-10 to a kind of conflict like the one in Ukraine, and dismissed it. His point was to look at the performance of the SU-25 in the context of the Ukraine-Russia war. Estimates suggest about 40 have been shot down in the conflict (~20 Ukrainian, ~20 Russian) (this is according to Wikipedia, so take it for what it's worth).

I think I'm missing something - why is it that everyone thinks Russia's army is doing so poorly? Like, if they were better, it would go faster? I've read that people think Bakhmut taking so long is because they're trying to grind down and kill off the most experienced Ukr soldiers. In that case, speed doesn't matter right? Overall I just sense there's a disconnect between what we expect a war should be like and how it actually is. Who would've thought the Houthi or the Hezbollah would've done so well against their incredibly well armed opponents? Not saying Russia has pulled off a masterclass or anything. By all accounts they're fighting a style of war that hasn't been physically seen for 80-100 years, depending on which world war you want to compare it to. How is everyone so sure what they're doing is a debacle?

Guys guys, with that kind of money imagine how many shitty planes we can buy

Budget increases but manpower down. Interesting

Boy am I in for a treat!

Thanks for linking to previous Cockburn episodes, for newer subscribers like me. Maybe this will be the impetus for me to finally read his book which I’ve owned for more than a year

Carthage episode!