Radio War Nerd #338 — World of Wars: Ethiopia, Ukraine + Ben Aris on the West's Economic War on Russia

War in Ukraine is about liberal democracy? Was he reading from Bidens script.

https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/remembering-the-crimean-war

Really solid episode, Ben’s discussion on the fertilizer production in Ukraine and Russia stuck with me from the last one.

Maybe have Rania Khalek on? She knows Lebanon inside out and I think has a different view from you guys on Ethiopia? A little bit of debate might make for a very listenable episode.

Interesting comment from Aris that NATO/EU support has been on a "just enough" basis, which is exactly the same as their COVID response has been. Well, Ukraine/our health care system hasn't completely collapsed yet so that means our policy is the bestest.

Fantastic interview!

just something important to note that might clear up why Russia can't spend the money: those dollars are on the balance sheets of correspondent banks and any transaction involving them would ultimately go thru the NY Fed, which clears all dollar transactions. It's helpful to think of it less as Scrooge McDuck piles of cash and more as easily surveilled database entries. They don't "physically" have the money, that's just not how modern banking works. There's only a trivial amount of world trade not denominated in dollars (minus eurozone transactions), which makes evading these sanctions difficult. It's no easy thing to construct an alternate global monetary architecture on the fly, even if people make noise about it every now and then.

it sounds like the MSM is building up a bibliography that we can all point to when the west ukrainians try to genocide the east ukrainians, assuming they control any of east ukraine a year from now. I guess Kimberley's initials spelling KEK instead of KKK is a step up. I guess.

I'm a high school teacher and one of my students is a refugee from Ethiopia and we often talk about the ongoing war. Your show has been helpful keeping me abreast of the situation.

Appreciate the updates about tigray and Ethiopia!

He's changed his tune a fair bit since the interview shortly after the operation began.

Ben Aris interview is fantastic, thanks.

Wow a Stan Murch reference on the podcast. Donald Westlake is so good, those books will never stop being funny.

Mark & John, what are your thoughts about this Ukraine-stuff really being US war against its curently only real rival EU? EU is about to lose a lot, especially if it true what Vucic in Serbia says that all hell will break lose when the West don't accept the offer. I take this thesis rather seriously becaus if you take a hard look, the US has stopped innovating and producing. The archetypical company coming out of US is Uber. A hyperfinancialoized company - zero profit, no way to make a profit but aiming for monopoly to extract rent, entering markets through legal arbitrage: not getting jailtime for bribery, threats to journalists, butt-raping drivers etc. Amazon, Tesla etc all of them live on legal arbitrage, not because they have innovated anything. Foreign Policy published an article sometime ago laying out that the strategic aim of the US was to stop any rival from rising instead of becoming better themselves.

Pretty good interview and very lucidly explained on Russia, sanctions, blowback. However, it is not certain that the West did not game this ... People like Rand corporation have been doing this for decades and Germany would have done it too... If the West was prepared enough to sanction Russia on such a large scale and freeze the reserves, they would have been prepared for the energy crisis too. Maybe the German capitalist want to shutdown and outsource jobs to Romania, Bulgaria, Poland ... Profits come first i.e. long term profits, not short term. Check Von der Leyen's family history. SHe is foremost among war hawks and the Green party backers may have something to benefit from the war too. Assuming them to be morons is wrong. Von der Leyen family history shows that

Can I get a link to the Andrew Coburn newsletter mentioned about Ukraine aid being given to Northern Virginia mansions?

I saw that NPR article and lost my sh!t

Excellent interview & very timely. I think Ben summed up the essence of the sanctions war when he said it's between the G7 & Russia, with the Global South more in sympathy with Russia than the Angloid West. In the long term that could work in favour of Russia, and the South.

this implies that, in terms of industrial technology and vehicles, russia is running on what it already has in place and is basically unable to replace factory machinery and most vehicles as it wears out and is entering a war of attrition over microchips and fabs. is that right?

Can I get an appeal on a ban from the Facebook group? There was a discussion about that stupid capital riot, with a bunch of dorks freaking about “coups on our democracy.” I was like chill out guys, they let those idiots into the building and then waited a year so they could have their investigation during an election year. It’s political theater just like Russiagate. I was then banned by a Patrick Connor for “fascism.” How are you guys going to let a straight up MSNBC robot be a full on admin on your Facebook group? Come on, man.

I dont get why they see "Russians invasion" as something that extraordinary. In international law terms, Ukraine had very extraconstiutional change of power. The side that got revolutionized/couped out did not agree with that, declared their seperation, and calls for their sponsor to protect them. If you look at OSCE reports, Kiev launched a massive artillery assault on Donbas, particularly on the 20/21.02.2022. Russia invaded in response to this. From their pov. they had a choice: 1: Stand by and let Donbass get butchered, and be despised for weakness. 2: Move in and face what the west can throw at it, and be feared for invasion. In a move that should surprise absolutely nobody, they moved in.

So glad you brought up The Economist which I had to stop reading after their Iraq War cheerleading. Great interview. It seems most people are missing the dangerous implications of these sanctions.

Here some insight to the Green Party in Germany https://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/8935 They are called Olivegreen Party: olive green as in the military uniform green

In the early 90's Finland went through an economic recession in which GDP fell by 13% and unemployment rose from 3,5% to 18,9%. I was about ten years old that time and remember those years vividly. All news was bad, there was no money to do anything and the high point of a week was Saturday because I got about 1€ worth of candy. There was a severe spike in drug and alcohol abuse, street level crime and suicides. If this will be the cost of Ukrainian victory I will gladly pay it and then some.

The talk with Ben helped me understand the sanctions better. A 97% drop in automotive production is huge, both for the civilian economy and also for what it might mean for military manufacturing.

I would argue that the US chooses economic war over conventional war because it's easier (they're lazy), it's easier to hide the devastation, and most of the targets don't have the economic power to survive

Excellent... another edition of 'Fall Asleep to 1 Hour of Ben Aris Telling Stories'. On par with Bob Ross and well worth the sub!