Radio War Nerd #321 — Ukraine-Russia War Update + Intro to Chechen Wars

Great episode, boys; long awaited. Incidentally, that’s the Lermontov poem we committed to memory in my freshman Russian class, back when I could barely claw through the translation. I also still know it by heart after all these years. Stirred a lot of _nostalghia_ (although I’m a little loath to use that term after the recent Death/Corner ep). Hope your brother improves soon, Mark.

Agincourt/Crecy already happened, or the premonition of it, in the 2006 Lebanon War

To play armchair general for a bit, it would seem at the very least that Russia was expecting Ukraine to see the surprise invasion and quickly come to the negotiation table and concede to at least the most important demand; a written declaration of forever absence from NATO and NATO involvement in Ukraine. Ukraine also seems to 1) have not expected the invasion and 2) expected (and still expect) NATO to come to their defense. Which is probably why the initial Russian push seemed so successful (at least in terms of the speed and scale of it, mostly in the south, I know mark thinks the initial invasion was disastrous, I don’t think it’s as bad as we’re led to believe)Things have changed though, and it looks like both sides have positioned themselves for a more conventional war rather than a quick show of force to push negotiations. Keeping this in mind though, I don’t see how this means Russia has been caught with their pants down, they’ve been preparing for a large conflict for the past 10-15 years. Maybe they didn’t expect this specific one to turn into a large conflict? We may never know, but I doubt they don’t have a plan for it. It’s incredibly hard in the first place to get a good idea of what is going on because of the incredible amount of propaganda and dubious sources on both sides. It’s hard to assess what Russias military goals even are. It seems they aren’t interested in starting massive battles over large cities like Kiev and Kharkiv, and are content with surrounding them. However, their efforts in the south and south east are completely different, where they’re more focused on moving quickly and taking as much territory as possible. Perfectly fine with shelling whole settlements and starting deadlier battles than seen in the north and north-east. One thing I think you guys missed on the morale front, is the morale of the Donetsk and Luhansk militia, who have been fighting the Ukrainian army for the past 8 years. They seem to be single-handedly carrying the south eastern front, initiating large battles and played a huge role in the surrounding of Mariupol. Their main task now seems to be pinning down the large formation of Ukraine’s best troops in the east. I would expect their morale to be just as high as any Ukrainian grunt really. I know we don’t like to make predictions. But I would be looking for the moment Russia decides to turn it up a notch. Yes, I’ve seen the horrible clips of Russian artillery and air strikes blasting city blocks to rubble, but it seems for the most part they are trying to focus on destroying military installations only and limiting the amount of potential for immense civilian casualties. This obviously means the Russian advance will be very slow, and that they’ll take a lot of casualties. So I would watch for a change in strategy if or once Russia deems it worth it to say “fuck it” and start an all out assault on large cities and Ukrainian defenses. Russian air has been relatively quiet, when that strategy changes, I’d expect to first see a huge increase in Russian air assaults before they turn on the meat-grinder in the larger Ukrainian settlements. I’ve said before I don’t see Ukraine winning this conflict, but I’m not deluded enough to think this will be easy for Russia, and think the conflict can end in many ways. From immense bloodshed and destruction, to a more diplomacy focused ceasefire after negotiations. Let’s hope eventually we see a shift towards diplomacy, as right now, NATO and Ukraine seem deadest on the push for an insanely disastrous war. But in the end. I know nothing, about as much as any schmuck on the internet.

One thing I have found is that no one has a metric to measure Russia’s military performance in Ukraine. What can we compare it to? Iraq, Afghanistan and even Vietnam to a lesser extent are entirely different conflicts. A lot of people say the US would perform better, and for the extra $650 billion they spend a YEAR on their military I sure bloody hope they would. Although, I don’t think the US is geared for a ground invasion against a near-peer enemy, hence why they depend so heavily on AirPower and stand-off weaponry. They would just bomb the shit out of Ukraine then roll in relatively unopposed; like in Iraq and Afghanistan.

great episode. would always love more content but dont feel too rushed to keep pumping stuff out

It's an obvious point but it needs to be said that that Z shit is the corniest thing in the universe

Germany 1939: Blitzkrieg Russia 2022: Blyatkrieg

Very sorry to hear about your brother, Mark. I hope he gets well soon.

https://rumble.com/vxz4bn-no-nazis-in-ukraine-ukrainian-children-brainwashed-by-nazi-anti-russian-hat.html

I'll be damned. "The Economist" published something fairly close to explaining how the Russian provocation, their attempts at a diplomatic response and their final recourse to an armed response went down. WTF?! You can read it for free if you register. https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2022/03/11/john-mearsheimer-on-why-the-west-is-principally-responsible-for-the-ukrainian-crisis

Thank you Mark and John for trying to keep your subscribers informed at this perilous hour. I saw Leon Panetta on Bloomberg on Thursday, and was shocked at how bloodthirsty he seemed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=ZPWu7cPPVv0 I saw Zelensky on CNN this morning. He said there is a 1% chance for successful negotiations, 99% chance of WW3. Is he the Antichrist?

Hey Mark, those guys from Russians with Attitude mentioned you along with John in their podcasts too. They charge more for the podcast tho. This Ukraine affair had them skyrocket up to 86k followers on Twitter.

Does anyone know if there were any remaining diplomatic options for Putin before going kinetic? The observers I follow say he exhausted all diplomatic options but maybe there is an alternative view?

Yesterday almost all the snow was melted and today we're getting 10-20cm. fucking fantastic

Can I request the link to that ABC piece?

Can i please request that if you’re ever in the uk again can there be a meet up as well

So two episodes in a row where you talk about zelensky in relatively glowing terms. The pandora papers revealed his vast corrupt wealth, and he and Bakanov are a Kolomoisky op. Personally i find him to be cringe af, his speeches are uninspired. At best his constant whining for a nfz is a shit tiered redux of Bosnians pleading for a right to self defense at the UN in 1992. How the hell do you talk about Zelensky without mentioning the Kolomoisky connection, you're stripping this moment of the most significant piece of context!

When you guys hit SF, can you hit LA too? :)

If y’all don’t stop comparing Russia to the U.S. in Iraq…

Lol as a California transplant to New York (actually originally from Massachusetts), I understand the love of thawing winter

How come there's never been an episode on the pro Russian western voices where if you know one you know all of them. They're all interconnected with each other, some appeared on RT....like the Duran, The Saker, Moon of Alabama, Dimitry Orlov, Gonzalo Lira....

Can you get Carl Zha on to talk about the Chinese reaction (govt and general populace) to the Ukraine-Russia war?

Where can I find the RSS feed? I've been subbed for a few months now and still haven't been able to get it to work.

Thanks for the distinction of urbanites and flyover country in Russia. It's useful to pair with Vijay Prashad's interview with Mitch Jeserich on "Letters and Politics," which is on YouTube.

This one is a banger, Mark and Jon. Good to hear a nuanced analysis of both sides in depth. At the outset of the war I thought the fog of war would be less intense with digital coverage and social media, but it turns out it is MORE intense.

Wow. JD with a sports metaphor. What is the world coming to?

Y'all should talk to Max Blumenthal on this one

oh yeah spring in Montreal is incredibly dramatic. hits different every time

I was in a conversation recently in real life where we agreed it would be a good time for the War Nerd to cover Chechnya.