Radio War Nerd #276 — The Year of Overdemonizing Dangerously

"Look its a genocide in that a culture is being destroyed." It's debatable whether a culture is being destroyed, but even if it was this is NOT a genocide. It's a real horrible inflation of the term which really diminishes the victims of *actual* genocide.

Look its a genocide in that a culture is being destroyed. With that being said there are strains of Islamic fundamentalism with in the most vocal Uighur minority. A lot Uighurs joined ISIS in Syria and have attacked Han people in Xinjiang, no doubt Chinese crackdown will heighten recruitment. Now the most vocal "humanitarian" voices in the west want to see China transformed away from the CPC and the concerns of the Uighurs are really secondary. This conflict has been going on for a decade now and only really in the past year has it received attention. In other words pure consent manufacturing

Adrian Zheng did NOT write this. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2021/04/21/this-manitoba-couple-lived-in-xinjiang-for-10-years-they-can-no-longer-stay-silent-about-what-they-saw.html

We try to avoid demonizing *too much*

Really enjoyed the conversation as always, but was struck by something Mark said at the end when comparing the Soviets to China. I agree that the comparison is completely off, and that China is completely different, but one specific thing Mark said caught my attention. He used the framing that the Soviet Union primarily collapsed because the Russian elites wanted to get unimaginably wealthy, and that isn't an issue in China, in part because they already are. I was wondering how that analysis marries up with stories like Jack Ma, and his very public clashes with the Chinese government. It seems to me that there is a division between industrial leaders and the government. I'm no expert on the story at all, but it seems like in essence Chinese industrialists are no different than any others. Eventually you want to call all the shots. It seems to me like it's a very important story.

It's clear that the US has no plan vis a vis the "defense" of Taiwan from China, but I don't think China does either to take it. John mentioned previously in a recent episode how China would not invade in a conventional way. Then how could they potentially capture Taiwan? No matter what, it would necessarily be a hostile takeover.

I know you were pressed for time in commenting on the declared US withdrawal from Afghanistan. But I was surprised that you overlooked the Afghanistan Papers which proved that the entire effort was a known failure for years and that everyone involved was lying about our chances for "success".

Re: Upstate vs. Downstate New York These terms have legal significance in the mortgage industry as the laws on foreclosure differ between the two regions.

The role of Silicon Valley and Wall Street in the China situation is important as well. SV and by extension Wall Street are keenly aware that they have been technologically lapped. China is developing 6G telecoms while the US only has 4G (per most telecoms analysts our 5G is fake). China has the most advanced AI research and AI capabilities. China also has the most advanced mobile payment processing systems. The only sector where US has an edge is semiconductors but that won’t last long. SV knows it can’t compete with Chinese multinationals so war, destruction and plunder is really the only option left on the table in their view.

You guys must know John Dowers book: "War without Mercy: Race and Power in the Pacific War"? I remember his comment to the effect that for all the viciousness of US opinion WRT Japan, the most remarkable thing was how quickly it escalated, and later, how quickly it went away. Another more recent book I like is Stephen Wertheim's "Tomorrow the World: The Birth of US Global Supremacy". It focus is on 1939-1941, and Roosevelt's belief that Germany posed an existential threat to the global system. He details the means by which American isolationism was discredited in popular thought, and how "multilateralism" was constructed so as not to impede the US use of power after the war. Finally this from March. Sounds like if you're on a budget, talk is the cheapest form of deterrent: Opeoing comments of Congressman Adam Smith (D-WA), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee at the first Force Posture Hearing (on the Indo-Pacific), Mar 10 2021. "As mentioned we are here to do our posture hearing for the Indo-Pacific command and the Indo-Pacific region. This is an incredibly important part of the world as China is without question the largest national security challenge and competitor that we have in the world today, and I think it's not an overstatement to say that how the next 50 years goes for this globe is going to be significantly impacted by how we manage that relationship with China; how we meet the challenges that they present in many areas, but certainly in the Indo-Pacific region; and I really welcome the opportunity to have a conversation with with our witnesses today who are so expert on that subject. "There is no doubt that the problem with China has grown in the last decade. They are looking to export an ideology, an authoritarian ideology, and they are also looking to diminish our influence in the world. There are a number of different challenges here, but overwhelmingly I just want to make it clear I think it is incredibly important that the United States stay present in the Indo-Pacific region so that we can be there to work with our partners and allies to make sure that a rules-based system holds sway in that region; and that China is not able to crush it and take a hegemonic approach instead. "Central to this in my view are the partnerships that we have in the region. Certainly we can have influence, but the stronger nations like like India and Japan and South Korea and Thailand and the Philippines and others are, the stronger our partnership is, the more we can continue to enforce that rule of law and make sure that there's a fair balance of power in the region. It is enormously important that we do that now as we move forward. I also want to make sure that we don't stumble into a Cold War with China, and you know i'll be interested to hear more from our witnesses [on] how to do this, but I want us to be strong enough to deter China. "The idea that we can build a military large enough and strong enough to dominate China in the modern world is not realistic, and is fraught with danger. So I hope we can better understand how to make the proper investments. and that's one big point. I was very pleased to work in a bipartisan way, and last session to create the Indo-Pacific Defense Initiative that's incredibly important to build partnerships going forward; and I know that it is going to have to be funded, but I want to make sure that we are making wise investments in that we have far more demands for DOD money than we have money. So we're going to have to make some tough choices to figure out what's the best way to spend it, what's the wisest way to live with that. "As some of you might have heard, I drew an analogy to the NFL salary cap recently. You know, basically you put together a team; you got to meet all these different responsibilities, but you got one cap on how much money you can spend; and if you spend it all in one area, then the other area will be too weak to accomplish your overall objective. So i'm trying to strike that balance, and obviously the other big challenge in the region is North Korea. Definitely look forward to hearing from General Abrams about that challenge: what he thinks our best approach is going forward. "I just want to close again by emphasizing I think the most important thing we can do in the region is build partnerships, and build partner capacities. There are a lot of countries in that part of the world that are sympathetic to where we're coming from, that want to work with work with us. We need to take advantage of that; build those those partnerships as strong as they possibly can be, and build the capacity of those partners."

This is one of the best episodes.

John how're you doing with side effects so far?

wait why would they pull out of afghanistan on the anniversary of the allende coup? is there something im forgetting?

I say this with love: now that RWN tote bags are for sale, Dolan and Ames are required to move to Williamsburg.

Now I fear for what will happen to Northern Ireland. John has a habit of leaving countries just as they go south.

postWW2 US wanted to be "prepoderant power."

poll: [1] war with China or [2] be ruled by China. i wonder how [2] would survey, offshore governing to China.

Annnnnd now I’m not going to sleep - thanks lads