Radio War Nerd EP #587 — Saudi Arabia, feat. Malise Ruthven + Iran War Update, feat. Annibale
Guest: Malise Ruthven
Recorded: February 27, 2026 & March 6, 2026*
We talk to historian-journalist Malise Ruthven about his book on Unholy Kingdom: Religion, Corruption and Violence in Saudi Arabia, on the history of Wahhabism and the Saudi ruling family, and on contemporary Saudi politics, relations with Iran, and the Crown Prince, "Bonesaw" MbS. Our interview was recorded the day before Bonebrain Trump unleashed his war on Iran, so we re-recorded the introduction this morning to give an update on the war with friend of the show Annibale, who lays out some of the war's likelier & less likely scenarios.
First - our war update with Annibale
At 54:22 - our interview with Malise Ruthven
Buy Malise Ruthven's book Unholy Kingdom: Religion, Corruption and Violence in Saudi Arabia (Verso). We also discuss some of his other books, including The Divine Supermarket: Travels in Search of the Soul of America (Bloomsbury) + Torture: The Grand Conspiracy.
Total time: 2:08:12
Direct link to this episode's mp3 here
*
Buy & review John Dolan's new book, They Should Have Been Hanged: War Nerd Essays on the U.S. Civil War
Subscribe to Radio War Nerd at patreon.com/radiowarnerd
Sound production by Telescope Audio
Comments (27)
Anybody have any idea what Annibale is using for the simulations? Very curious, no idea how that kind of thing works
Hello nice speech 😌
Comforting to hear Annibale’s scenarios but I can’t help but foresee doomsday. Trump is speed-running to do everything no other president has done or only dreamed of doing. He wants the biggest piece of history he can get. And so he must be feeling the weight of those nuclear codes in his pockets. This war is so devoid of reason - there’s no logic to this war! The likeliest outcome is whatever the 45 and 47th Idiot has him salivating. And escalation gets higher ratings and all the best movies have a lot of explosions.
I'm not suggesting we won't face a catastrophic escalation. I'm using a structured analytical tool I developed to assess a live international crisis and generate a probability distribution across eight potential outcomes — ranging from full diplomatic resolution to outright military victory or total enforcement collapse. Its scope is intentionally narrow: it covers international crises where at least one party seeks to compel, deter, or reverse the actions of another — think sanctions enforcement, military intervention threats, peacekeeping operations, or territorial disputes. The model classifies the crisis into one of seven structural types based on eleven inputs, applies a set of conditional rules, and produces a forecast such as "45% chance of negotiated settlement, 30% chance of enforcement stalemate, 15% chance of limited military action." While far from perfect, it aids analytical rigour and helps distinguish "signal from noise". Tested against 78 historical cases, it correctly identifies the dominant outcome approximately 55% of the time from initial variables alone, with accuracy improving significantly as additional observable events are incorporated dynamically. Currently, when applied to Iran, the model indicates around a 70% probability (which declines daily) that the most likely outcome is a bounded regional conflict, potentially involving new fronts — a higher likelihood, or with the current scope. The chance of a global escalation stands at about 10%. So, it's not a "small" probability, but also not overwhelmingly high. Naturally, if a dramatic escalation occurs, these figures may change.
I could hear John straining in his chair the moment the words “Irish Protestant” slipped from Ruthven’s lips
Can someone point me to where Hegseth or whoever was talking about this warhammer and lotr stuff?
I swear to god, historians in the coming centuries are gonna talk about Pete Hegseth the way people today talk about the time Caligula appointed his horse to the senate
Nobody pulls fluent English text through an Italian pronunciation schema like Annibale
I know he’s a right-wing, ultranationalist, racist shithead from Croatia, but this week has further proven Niccolo Soldo right about every foreign policy issue involving the U.S. for the last five years, and especially his 2022 article on Turbo America. He’s been right on Ukraine, EU, Gaza, Lebanon, and now Iran.
Pokemon got nothing to do with this
As an ignorant, Gary’s question about Red Sunni v Red Shia was very interesting. The Protestant and Sunni parallels seem to align with political alignments. At least in the Saudi-Evangelical axis. I imagine this is explored in the epically long series with Amer?
Wahabist and protestant, way closer.
The high seas are once again open to pirates, and piratical states. Flags of convenience will not work when a flag needs to have a navy to back it up. And nobody has that but us and a couple of european powers for now. Look at Argentina when they get tired of the Chinese strip mining fishing fleet raping their seas....
Europe doesn’t have shit
"soaked in everclear" ... a bit too perfect. It's so hard to believe these people are real, but they very much are...
I know that many of you barbarossa fans have been full of unrest and agitating for a return to the series. Meanwhile us italian wars fans have been patient despite being forgotten. Get in line! 😂
We may return to tha series sometimes in the future
An all time great episode in terms of accents
How much resupply does Iran get via the Caspain Sea? It may become the most critical route in an attenuated war?
I need to hear Annibale and Prit Buttar chopping it up. I’m sure they’d beef on various things (and have very different backgrounds) but two serious and thoughtful Eastern Front experts.
Always good to hear from Annibale and great interview with Malise Ruthven. Pulled the trigger on Unholy Kingdom and Torture: The Grand Conspiracy. Great ep!
are british people not named after their ruling family?
For Annibale: Ed elli a me, come persona accorta: Qui si convien lasciare ogne sospetto; ogne viltà convien che qui sia morta Dante Alighieri, Inferno, Canto III
The beginning of Canto III is for me the most terrifying moment of the Commedia
This plus the Chapo interview puts you guys at what, four podcasts in a week? Sheesh, take a break! (Kidding, obviously. But I do really appreciate all the work you guys are doing as the situation, shall we say, "develops rapidly.")
I saw a headline today about Trump wanting to talk to China (during his visit) about not buying Russian oil… like, what fucking world do they live in lol
Annibale episode so fast grazie al cielo