Radio War Nerd EP #530 — Israel-Iran War: Iron, Doh!

Keep these episodes coming! Great stuff. Hoping you can get Hersh back on the show to talk about his latest.

Vorauseilender Gehorsam is the word.

You have a very unique and original vision 💖 nice work

I can only imagine Iran has been waiting for "IT" the one final attack forever now. And not fully investing in these constant minor attacks. Its most likely expecting a ground invasion before glassing israel. In a way the West has new ideas and battle plans. Place like Iran, and another good example Russia, has had a final battle in mind for over 50 years. Its long term long battle coldwar thinking. Doesnt gel with the US thinking now.

Is it crazy to think Trump might bomb Fordo, but then immediately strongarm the Israelis into a ceasefire?

The few times I see the Strait of Hormuz mentioned in the mainstream (and sometimes even here) it’s assumed it can’t be shut because it will hurt the PRC. Who says that the only way to shut down traffic is with mines? Shutting down the Strait is a central pillar of the defense of Iran. They have more tricks than just mining the Strait. Y’all know they can pick their targets right?

What an effing epic stupid decision to allow Isreal to set up in Palestine, one we will likely not recover from. They have proved to be a US state anyway, we should have given them Florida where they could have imagined Palestine ... it's a theme park there already anyway.

If it’s any comfort to John, I have a hard time seeing many Pleasant Hill kids in 2025 carving “Fuck Iran” anywhere. There are some snobby white rich kids in that corridor of 680 now but I don’t see them as especially nationalistic. Nationalism is passé and dull

Surely, this will be the last emergency episode about this.

Regarding the absolutely most important topic from the episode, there is, in fact, a song about getting locked out of your room at a Mexican beach resort: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=%22quarantine+at+el+ganzo%22+%22keycard%22 It’s from an album produced during COVID lockdown at the resort: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quarantine_at_El_Ganzo

The current contretemps between Iran and Israel (soon to include the ever-bumbling US empire) illustrates a key problem with missile defense. First, testing the system is expensive. You have to throw one or more target missiles up and then, according to doctrine I have read, you have to fire at least two interceptor missiles to try to hit the targets to have a reasonable chance of getting it. This quickly becomes very pricey, very quickly. Hence, tests tend to be highly scripted events- the interceptor team knows when the target is launched, how many there are, etc. War tends not to be so highly scripted. More importantly, the people building and launching the target missiles are only allowed to include a certain number and certain type of what are called "penetration aids" or decoys, so as to allow the interceptors a better chance of hitting their target. Iran has had a long time to figure out what may penetrate/confuse Israeli anti-ballistic missiles and I doubt they've accepted any constraints on numbers and types of penetration aids. Yes, there is a tradeoff between payload and penetration aids, but you can put a whole bunch of different types on at a very small weight cost. Plus, you can use older generation missiles to launch completely inert warheads with a cloud of penetration aids to soak up a lot of interceptor missiles. This is why the US and the USSR agreed to an ABM treaty. It costs way more to defend than attack. We are seeing that this is still the reality in the current battle between Israel and Iran. And I am going to LMAO if Iran manages to hit a B-2 (a la the Bosnians with a F-117) Talk about an expensive hole in the ground.

The US and their allies in the European ruling class performed a quiet coup across Europe after the second Iraq war. The reason why the same European countries that did not support Dubya are now supporting the US is that the entire European elite has either been recycled or silenced.

There was some rumor floating around that Hezbollah sent a large portion of their missiles to Syria to protect from Israeli interference. Supposedly they were destroyed in the airstrikes when Assad fell. Sounded plausible.

Like this comment if you don’t want Israel and/or the United States to use nuclear weapons against Iran

One thing I've heard about Hezbollah is that they ceased operations to prevent popular opinion in the rest of Lebanon from turning against them. After all they did intervene on Palestine's behalf as a matter of religious obligation and solidarity and not because they had been attacked; one thing I've seen them doing as they lay low has been to go 'OK, Lebanon government, it's your turn to show you can actually lead' and thus far the official government has been chasing down Lebanese and arresting them for the crime of getting shot at by the IDF and other nonsense like that, which Hezbollah has been criticizing them for.

When asked, "¿Cómo es Juan?" Butt-Head replied, "Rico Suave," and Beavis replied, "Spaghetti." As the teacher said, "The only Spanish you guys learned was at Taco Bell, and Beavis can't even get that right!"

Also, exo-atmospheric missile interception photos are visually spectacular

Look at it this way: the first day of this war would, in a movie, be the sneak attack by the evil empire against an unsuspecting peace loving underdog I mean Americans would be confused by the labels on the good guys and bad guys but it still stands

There were more people calling out Iran to do something now, otherwise it's game over for Iran. My favorite geo political blogger Ian Welsh also figured this out. https://www.ianwelsh.net/iran-has-been-hit-hard-by-israel/

Wars the us has won with air power Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea, Red Sea/yemen, oh wait

One thing I don't understand about Irans grand strategy is why hezzbollah didn't have integrated air defenses. Large missle and rocket forces are not the most mobile and very vulnerable and Lebanon does not have much air space to cover

Iron cheese cloth

the hezzbolah defeate seems less mysterious when you remember that their are fewer Lebanese Shia than Gazans and they rely on the aquiesence of the rest of a very fagile country to operate.

This song needs to be worked into the next ep https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/1934052596882321772

Drones might be good and cheap, and ballistic missiles are impressive and inflicting damage (not as much after Sunday) but air superiority counts for something, Iran not being able to shoot down enemy plans and having its air defence degraded is not a good sign for this conflict.

Nobody in this country's "leadership" or Europe's thinking through the whole "this is the Persian Gulf itself we'd be permanently destabilizing" thing. Or that Iran is the 17th most populous nation on earth. Yeah, let's just wreck the whole world economy because we can. I swear to god boomers heard "the personal is political" back in the 70s and took it to mean "take everyone else out with you when you go."

On the topic of the Red Army, I'm curious to see how anyone could defend the purging on Tukhachevsky, the father of Deep Operations, and Soviet tank warfare, on the advice of Budyonny, who sabotaged the Soviet-Polish War, thought cavalry would beat tanks, and oversaw one of the largest encirclement in history at Kyiv.

Too much of an Israel losing take, because the missiles made great video. I think the US providing huge logistical support that just broke is too much for Iran. Russia is mad, and wants to use this as an opportunity to bleed the US in Iran. But they have no spare modern gear. So, now the US has air supremacy over Iran, I imagine the missile launch sites will be dust. Further, I suspect the US has a ready program of bombing to degrade all the nuclear facilities and even the national grid of Iran. This is on par with destroying the entire infrastructure of a powerful second world country. And China will keep the oil flowing, in spite of regime change.

Iran doesn't have much of a chance. If it closes the Strait of Hormuz, it cuts off oil to China and loses any hope of Chinese support, which it needs. Same with if Iran attacks Saudi. Iran got dealt the weakest hand (its first mistake was to be Shi'a in a Sunni world). Its only hope is to invite Chinese sponsorship, Ukraine-style.

I firmly believe that overall “MAGA” wants whatever Donald Trump tells them to want. In the end MAGA is Trumpism and Trumpism is whatever Donald Trump wants.

Keep in mind, the Iranian situation in regards to its military is NOT one to emulate. Yeah it has missiles and drones, but it’s lack of a functioning Air Force means that Israel can just bomb whatever it wants, and traditional manned air platforms are still the best way to deliver powerful strikes at moving targets, and places where you need or want absolute precision. BMs cant replace an airforce, and the fact that Iran has no control over the sky will make a ground defence near impossible should it turn into a ground war. You can’t hide from modern aircraft like the VC and NVA could.

Half past tweeeeeelve

I’m on Israel’s Samson option target list. 250kt-400kt of vaporization

Ayatollah John Dolanei

a title for the ages

Can't wait for the comments on this one