Radio War Nerd EP #487 — Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire + Syria Collapse, feat. Cyrus (*guest co-host Aamer)
Guest: Cyrus, MENA researcher
*Guest co-host: Aamer
Recorded: December 6, 2024
We talk to friend of the show "Cyrus" about the two major recent events: the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, and Assad's collapsing Syrian state.
(Note: The War Nerd had to slip away on a dark mission before recording this episode. FOTS Aamer volunteered for duty as guest co-host.)
*Map
Total time: 2:00:03
Direct link to this episode's mp3 here
*
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Comments (58)
Where can we find more Cyrus?
woohoo guest cohost
Thanks for this episode- it provides much needed detail and context around the fall of Assad. Given the utter poverty of anglophone coverage (which notably dodges the question of HTS or Jolani’s stance toward the Gaza genocide) this kind of analysis is invaluable. Keep it up! The more Aamer and Cyrus content the better.
Echoing everyone else to say this is an incredible episode
Agree with others that this was one of the top RWN eps ever. Aamer and Cyrus rule.
Oh boy, the last few minutes of this episode is a barrage of gut punches.
Totally agree with Cyrus about Americans calling Netanyahu “Bibi.” Feels like it trivializes the situation
Does Cyrus have a twitter?
I didn’t want to admit but Landis was right on the near term points- look at the cease fire agreement. Solid episode and you are right about the details Cyrus provides.
Great episode, always love Aamer!
It’s amazing how well this analysis holds up. Also, although Landis was correct on a lot of points, Cyrus is much more specific on why things happen the way they do. I think he’s much more insightful.
I don’t trust Landis as far as I can throw him. I trust Cyrus.
Fantastic episode.
Hands down the best analysis on this recent escalation in Syria. I listened to it after the fall of Assad and still I say this. Awesome.
Please have Aamer and Cyrus on more. Episodes like this should be free to the public so we can spread it around to friends and family so they can hear a different perspective than what they’re being force fed by western media. Thanks so much for this show yall.
Not to advocate theft but I've never hesitated to pass the occasional mp3 to close friends or family 😉
The great untold story about the middle east is the role played by the ruling classes in Arab Gulf regimes in befriending Assad, Iran, while simultaneously destroying them by proxy forces. Time will tell, but I am sure the Israeli bombing of Lebanon was greenlighted by UAE and SAudis "Asghar Zarei, an analyst close to the regime, said that Assad had “misbehaved” since the Hamas-Israel war in October 2023, without giving details." https://www.ft.com/.../0311cae9-f35b-4e7a-952b-e26aba870549
This was a great listen. Thank you for this perspective rwn
1:41:57
listening to this after the collapse of damascus, it seems like if Julani has "matured" half as much as the best case scenario it's in the interests of basicaly every imperial power that he dies quickly under murky circumstances.
The West has really tried to turn Julani into a star, but I don't know what's going to happen to him or HTS now that Assad is gone. They aren't the only rebel group, and not the only rebel group with powerful foreign backers, either. I don't know how much credibility Julani has with the Syrian people compared to other leaders, like Assad's Prime Minister, either. I think everyone is waiting for the dust to settle to see what the world looks like now.
Turkey gets to do a victory dance in the endzone now, I guess. MSM is beyond disgusting to look at right now. From comparing the PKK to Daesh, to blandly repeating Turkey's lies that they had nothing to do with any of this, to blaming Alawites' fears on Assad, to pretending that HTS isn't rebranded al-Qaeda, to ignoring Israel blatantly seizing this opportunity to carve out and occupy parts of the country through military conquest... But whatever. So now what? The U.S. and Turkey got their regime change, or at least regime collapse. I'm sure they're all jerking each other off in Ankara and D.C. right now. What next?
i was reading a Reuters thing that mentionned that the refugees might get to go home soon and was like you guys serious?
Also I hope John is doing well whatever raid he was involved in!
Great timing and great analysis! Looking forward to next update from the nerds as time allows
Thank you for bringing on Cyrus. A much better and more knowledgeable guest than Landis
Israel launching offensive occupying southern parts of Syria. Please cover this.
I'm sure they don't need random Patreon subscribers to tell them when major war news happens, Jared... I would hope they have other sources.
hey great ep, love to see Aamer and Cyrus on again, tho I've been having an issue with the post on patreon where around the hour mark the recording just cuts out, and it displays it as if I've listened to the ep the whole way through. So I've been listening to the download instead.
I think this is one of the the best episodes you've ever done, and it's a shame John wasn't there, but goddamn this was extremely illustrative and fucking depressing. Another commenter expressed this but Landis was right, the Axis of Resistance lost and lost bad, and got exposed as incredibly weak. The US marked Syria for death, and it's plans are measured in decades, not months or years. It took decades and hundreds of thousands of lives to fulfill its ambitions, hope everyone celebrating the fall of the regime is happy, and I hope they're happy with whatever comes next
They won't be. But hey, that's just a new enemy to justify playing new geopolitical games, right?
2hr Cyrus and Aamer ep lets fucking gooo, that’s what I want to see
There's an old saying in Ho — I know it's in Mao, probably in Ho — that if you lose people to save land, people are gone forever. But if you lose land ... or lose people to save land rather... Point is, you can't get the people back.
underrated comment
Listening to Aamer talk about Hezbollah attacking Israel on October 8th and than calling the subsequent war "Israel's Lebanon war" was some remarkable double speak. Serious question: why are so many folks on the so-called "left" calling the current Hezbollah-israel war Israels war on Lebanon? Didn't Hezbollah attack Israel first in solidarity with Hamas? Didn't Hezbollah agree to participate in Al Aqsa flood with Hamas but ultimately didn't participate because it needed more time to prepare ? Didn't Hezbollah condition stopping it's attacks on Israels northern towns on Israel agreeing effectively to allow Hamas to keep controlling Gaza (not really anything to do directly with Hezbollah)? Why is this Israels war on Lebanon and not Hezbollahs (unsuccessful) war on Israel?
I was asking a serious war nerd question. Please give a serious war nerd answer. Like one that is explanatory. I'd like to understand the mindset of reflexive anti-zionists that need to call a war that Israel pretty clearly didn't start (based on my comment above) "Israels war". What don't you agree with specifically? Do you even have an argument? Are you making a culture reference instead to make yourself feel cool when you don't have anything of substance to say?
https://syria.liveuamap.com/
Would love a transcript of Cyrus’ final bit regarding the destruction of a state. Very rough to hear.
Hopefully people who were criticising Landis are satisfied now that Cyrus has supported the assertion that Israel won and decisively degraded Hezbollah’s capacity
I was definitely critical of Landis, and it sucks that he was right, because the truth in this circumstance definitely hurts.
I can't thank you enough for this episode! Cyrus helped me understand what is going on in Syria in a way none of the rest of the flood of information about this unfolding story has. As someone who feels love and gratitude to the Cuban people for continuing to demonstrate that resistance against the evil empire is possible, Cyrus shared with us the tragic results of abandoning that resistance. I feel so sad for Syria.
lol the Maronites trying to be like, “they not like us”
I remember during the 2006 war my friend's Maronite dad cheering on the war, saying he hoped the Israelis and Lebanese Muslims wiped each other out.
“They exposed Israel’s nature to the world, once and for all” and the world looked on, with total apathy.
That's not the case, though. The West's ruling elite are treating them like a spoiled child throwing a temper tantrum, while the general public are horrified and disgusted. The U.S. hasn't withdrawn its support for Israel, yet. That doesn't mean regular people accept and tolerate Israel anymore, and that really does matter, in the long run.
Cyrus feels like the RWN Deep Throat, even though they’re not sharing secret information. Also, knowing John, he’s probably had to get original copies of paperwork proving his second colonoscopy occurred, so that Malta’s 2nd administrative court of appeals will release their hold on his war painting shipment, or some other incomprehensible battle against a kafkaesque bureaucracy
Totally get what you mean about Cyrus. Feels like he’s a “contact” 🕵️♂️
Hi mark im in the process of developing Gary Brecher AI please drop me a line if interested
can you not
Why is Assad so pathologically overconfident? The only cards he has to play are the support he gets from his allies, and all of them are busy elsewhere right now. Shouldn't he have started making deals back when he had the upper hand? At this point, he has no leverage and nothing to offer anyone. Well, anyway, as it turns out, Russia abandoned Assad before America could abandon the Syrian Kurds. Where does this leave the YPG and the other American-backed rebels?
I have a feeling once the HTS Islamists capture Damascus and depose Assad, they and the Turks will turn their wrath on the Kurds. By and large the Kurds have already been abandoned, the Turks were allowed to take a chunk of Syria from the SDF without so much as a stern talking to. They likely will put up a better fight than the SAA, but Turkey is doing a full court press in Syria and NATO/US arms (likely Turkish advisors) are flowing without hindrance to former al Qaeda affiliates in Syria. If they stall out likely Turkish troops, drones and planes will get directly involved and the YPG will likely be turned from “plucky democratic allies fighting for freedom” into “extreme left terrorists” overnight. After that who knows what could happen, you likely could see spill over and destabilization in Iraq, Iran, Yemen and Lebanon if that hasn’t already started. Likely a redeclaration of the Caliphate. Grim shit.
Cyrus + Amer? This is an early Christmas/Eid/Hanukkah gift! We just need Annibale to show up dressed like Santa
Or Annibale dressed as La Befana :-D
War nerd sans the war nerd :0
It’s just Radio now
Oh so that’s who clipped the CEO (just kidding). A dark mission indeed
Not helping after that intro, Mark
immediate click