Radio War Nerd EP #473 — Nasrallah Assassination, feat. Joshua Landis

I was a Landis hater but after the events of the last few months I am realizing how wrong I was about his perspective. Whether we like it or not, the good guys lost and Landis put it in perspective quite eloquently. These episodes were important discourse, thanks RWN.

Just saw a Landis quote on Al Jazeera where he does some more wish casting and said that if Harris wins she will be more forceful with Israel. I want to reiterate that you don’t have to listen to anyone associated with Oklahoma.

“Europeans are rule followers, [arabs are not]” What is this BS doing on RWN?

Epic struggle session from the RWN community. 145 comments on this post alone. About a hundred more comments than the average rwn post.

Aged like milk lmfao

I like the pessimism from Landis here, if only to sharpen our perspective. The road to an end to the Zionist project is far longer than we want it to be.

John, Mark - could you please get Aamer back on the show to discuss Landis' ridiculous and racist-coded comments? I had a lot of respect for Landis up until last Friday, and it would be good to get the perspective of an actual Arab person on both what Landis said and what's transpired since

My fault guys, I dm’d IRGC “yo Landis says ur a bitch”

This aged fast lol

Saying "Shi-ite", instead of Shia, strikes me as an obvious tell of Landis's affiliations and sympathies. Also, I raised an eyebrow at this guy's credentials regarding the Middle East and Syria as soon as he described Alawi as Shia.

It's an ongoing situation, of course, so new developments might come out, but I am confused why Iran's missile barrage disproves Landis's thesis. For a long time, RWN seems to have taken for granted that Iran is capable of a missile swarm that will overwhelm the Iron Dome and do something to Israel. They've lobbed a couple of volleys at Israel now, and they (apparently) have nothing to show for it. They certainly haven't dissuaded the Israelis from attacking them or their allies. The refrain always seems to be "They're holding the good stuff in reserve." It's starting to sound a little hollow. Landis's point is that Iran can't or won't protect its allies, and that means the whole "Axis of Resistance" is mostly a Western fantasy. It remains to be seen whether he's right or not, but the backlash against him calling out Iran for its apparent weakness in the face of Israeli aggression doesn't seem warranted. In any case, it's a really, really bad idea, but the Israelis have apparently decided to put Landis's thesis to the test by invading Lebanon. The best anyone can hope for is that Israel is defeated and de-Nazified as soon as possible. I don't know what that would take, or how it could be accomplished, but these monsters have to be stopped.

lol a bit of whoops on this episode!!

So uh this aged badly I guess

Paper expert

Not a square millimeter of IDF boot unlicked

This guy is like a step above that NYT’s “journalist” y’all had on about africa that ended up writing the “mass rape by Hamas” article. Im totally cool with listening to someone like this because echo chambers are shit and people should hear different “perspectives” to think through their own shit but good fucking god lol I was like this 🤨 the majority of the time.

This aged horribly lol

Paper tiger hu? 🤣🤣

welp looks like someone didn't know what the fuck they were talking about with respect to Iranian long range missile capability

Boy did this age badly

Looks like you guys need to do a new recording

Landis recently tweeted this madness: ‘As for the broader resistance front, I don't foresee it crumbing. Assad was left in contol of Damascus by the US/Israel and the European powers because they feared the alternative.’ US/Israel and EU powers armed, trained, funded and did propaganda for the alternative they supposedly ‘feared’. I fear Landis might believe basic falsehoods that negates entire sections of his analysis.

Ohhhh that’s why Landis has that job

At one point Landis speaks about how Middle Eastern (ME) countries are not nation-states like Western nations; that Western 'nation-states' are 'rule followers' with the implication being that ME countries are not. Coincidentally, the 'nation-state' form has only ever worked for the (Western) nations (and later their proxies) that ruled over global empires for centuries, that extracted (and continue to extract) massive surpluses from peripheral nations, and drew almost all of the borders of 'nations' we see on a map today. These same 'successful' nation-states also happen to be the nations that have written and enforced the rules imposed upon the global south and peripheral nations. Lebanon itself, is an example par excellence of a technocratic Western imposed (failed) state-building project. In this way, I find Landis' framing and 'statecract' perspective completely outdated and utterly lacking in ability to historically explain or theorize about the nature of conflict in the Middle East or the world at large. This assumption that the 'nation-state' form can seemingly be copy/pasted and imposed is a pure fantasy that has literally blown up in the face of the United States, and other Western nations, in almost all of their historical attempts to do so. The nation-state and system of nation-states have 'functioned' for those states that continue to consume, produce, extract surpluses from, and define and enforce the rules upon weaker states. So rather than asking why the nation-state form 'fails' in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia; it is more valuable to think what is the purpose of state-building projects (that have never worked) and how rhetoric and discourses of 'failed' and 'successful' nations legitimizes outside intervention, domination, extraction, and war-crimes. Finally, one cannot truly begin to understand the origins of Zionism and Israel itself, without engaging with the culturally hegemonic Western conceptualizations of the nation, the nation-state, and who belongs to the nation and within its sovereign territory.

The comparison of 10/7 to 9/11 is an accurate one, but not because "America had no defenses" for that kind of attack – that's thoroughly and irrefutably wrong. The single most important similarity is the mounting critical mass of evidence that Israel, just like the USA, knew what was coming for a long, long time and let it happen as a matter of policy, because it would finally give a generation of psychopaths the pretext they needed for the insane "new world" they've spent decades salivating over.

Definitely disagree with Landis on a lot, and his bias definitely shows. Calling systematic regime change that has killed millions "mischievous" makes me consider him a non-serious thinker. The some elements I hope you find some smart people to come on and respond to / critique are: 1. The idea that Islamic countries need to just figure out democracy -- some real space here to acknowledge our complicity in preventing that over the years, even as we claimed we were trying to nurture it with violence. 2. The idea that a two-state solution is a viable one the US should push for and support -- without any acknowledgement of the military imbalance that would need to be addressed to make that viable makes the suggestion almost absurd. If Palestine doesn't have a Nuke and F-35s and tanks you best believe Israel would keep doing what they're doing. There's no state without the capacity for state violence. 3. That the Palestinians would accept a "modicum" of justice and that would totally dismantle Hezbollah and Hamas' powerbase. Laughable to the point where I wonder if he thinks Palestinians are stupid. They deserve much more than a drop of justice, and I don't see how after all this any major percentage of the population would accept anything less (nor should they)

If Israel is not going to invade, just hit more spec ops raids or Just bombs away from the air, doesn’t that speak to the inherent weakness of Israel as opposed to Hezbollah and Iran. A leaderless movement with a disrupted communications network and you aren’t gonna go? It wouldn’t get “easier”. Israel is gonna just punish the people who live there.

Jesus this guy sucked. I think this is the first guest I didn't like.

i can't lie, this is the most deflated i've ever felt after a RWN ep

Great interview, but I feel like we should push back on two assertions “the IDF has destroyed Hamas” and “the IDF will destroy Hezbollah.” The civilian structures of these organizations have been shattered by Israeli attacks, but the armed wings still seem like they’re kicking. Israel still can’t control Gaza- they’re mostly just stuck in the Netzarim corridor and southern border with Egypt. Hamas is still hitting IDF units and has inflict significant material and human casualties. Their tunnel system is still largely intact. Hezbollah still has thousands of fighters deployed in fortifications in southern Lebanon- it will take months of fighting and many casualties to destroy these positions. They are deeply enmeshed in Lebanese society and have access to the eastern border with Syria, where they can receive resupplies. The situation is dire, but a big element of the severity is that Israel still faces major obstacles to victory. They use strikes against high value targets, in part, to distract from how little they’ve managed to accomplish after a year of war.

It's always a good sign for the show when an episode gets 70+ comments in 12 hours. I'm not saying that ironically, either. Engagement and controversy is a good thing, it shows that the show isn't just an echo chamber. With that said, really hope you can get Amal Saad on, maybe even next episode? I know that's a tough ask, but basically getting two perspectives and finding the "truth in the middle" would be productive. Honestly, my gut, not-backed-by-evidence reaction is that Israel may have just popularized Hezbollah in Lebanon. Even if you're anti Hezbollah, the precedent of Israel just leveling your country to assassinate a leader is not good. Also, if Israel does go through with even a "limited" ground invasion, it's only going to cause more issues. If they're smart they will "quit while they're ahead.". But lets be honest who ever quits while they're ahead?

Jared Kushner's post on Twitter epitomizes what the Scarecrow told Dorothy Gale: Some people without brains do an awful lot of talking.

need like four hours in a float tank with Sina rahmani laughing on loop to undo what this Fauntleroy McBlanco did to my time on this earth. his thoughts feel straight-jacketed, overconfident. i assume he consults.

Probably not a good sign for global stability that we need emergency episodes every few days.

don't be sad, a whole new generation of bums is coming up... It's going to be wild

Great comments!

I agree with the other commenter's point that this is a VERY western-centric view on things. I'm glad you had Joshua on the show again and hope he comes back. However, the analysis seems extremely "doomer" for the non-US factions in the same way analysts had similar dim views on Russian chances in Ukraine. Which failed to materialize as Russia continues to meat grind through multiple Ukrainian armies in spite of the full backing of NATO. On the primacy of US and Israel tech, intel, military, balance of power, etc. This still boils down to "we're going to bomb them into submission" as used in Iraq and Afghanistan. 20 years on and those countries are run by the Iraqis and the Taliban (again). The long term doesn't favor "making the rubble bounce" as we keep seeing war, after war, after war. Listening to this you'd think Hez has ceased to exist and Iran has collapsed.

Oh my God, "that is the difference between arabs and the west ....Europeans are rule followers" Great example showing what western "experts" are all about.

I wasn’t particularly convinced by Joshuas tweet of crystal ball predictions, but hearing him explain it makes more sense of it. I respect his work and his opinion but find a few flaws in this. Primarily Iran as a paper tiger. The region is mostly behaving in accordance with Israels nuclear deterrence, I don’t think that makes Iran a paper tiger, thats a bit hyperbolic.

I appreciate his perspective but honestly I find most of it useless, bar his critique of Iran.

This reeks of the “western sanctions will crush the Russian economy” line we saw in the weeks after the invasion of Ukraine. Overestimating the western powers against a determined enemy that has had decades to prepare

this guy fucking sucks, and as i said on your last ep, israel was not surprised by al aqsa flood, it was not an intelligence failure. Please actually read about it: https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/timeline3/latest/embed/index.html?source=1ZSrt_Avt2csuBW5gqJC6ib3a-dbyys9swoES2q_Iuik&font=Default&lang=en&initial_zoom=2&height=800 https://booty.substack.com/p/october-7

do not confuse unisono blob media with where US people will be in future

The change obviously will never come out of Israel. It is possible in United States.

How is Israel so strong relative to neighbors? What would it be without full blind backing of US superpower, its arms, intel, tech, money, and politics run by Israel's supporters?

Always good to have a dissenting voice on, here are my critiques: 1) There’s no way Hamas expected 10/7 to be met with enthusiastic backing from Arab states, their aims were to put the Palestinian question back on the table and torpedo Saudi normalization, both of which were achieved. 2) All this mention of dysfunctional Arab regimes, yet none of Egypt. I appreciate Vincent Bevin’s analysis of what would happen if the US and Gulf allowed a democratic process there and why that won’t happen if they can help it. 3) what about the significance of his martyrdom??? What happened to the idea that Israel operates like a mad dog with no strategic thinking, undertaking operation because they can? The media narrative is that this has neutralized resistance and only time will tell, and I guess we’ve learned post Ukraine not to make predictions, but…

At the end of the day, Mr Landis has an extensive knowledge of Syria and the Middle East, but still can’t escape the prevailing theories of political formation that have been put forth by people like Francis Fukuyama (who isn’t wrong, just not 100% correct). To paraphrase tarence ray, “it goes to show what no dialectics [and or historical materialism] does to a motherfucker”

"I'm sure Iran was urging him". Mind reading much?

Does this guy even speak arabic? Was this episode aimed at ensuring this show does not get demonetized? Cause thats what it looks like. How do you always have a propagandist american white guy available to comment on organizations they are completely removed from?

I emailed Joshua landis about the 2006 hezzbollah war this summer he got back pretty quickly with a decent response. Always enjoy his appearances even if I disagree on some points but unfortunately he may be right.

Israel’s GDP has fallen by 20% in the last twelve months. There is no end in sight for the conflict in Gaza or the north, and the slow attrit from Yemen continues. How much longer can the Israeli economy sustain the war at this rate of degredation? Money and goods can continue to flow from the US, but if the economy is ceasing to function the country cannot sustain itself. This is why Israeli is acting with such manic determination to wrap this war up - their economy is on its last legs and their enemies know this - this is how guerilla warfare works and let’s not forget it just because there has been a big emotional set back.

Shockingly weak analysis & frankly neo Orientalist drivel, but then again the guy can’t even to bring himself to say the word “genocide”. It’s honorable and necessary to be skeptical of blind boosterism but excessive pessimism masquerading as sober analysis serves practically the same purpose. I appreciate the diversity of guests that RWN brings on but really struggling to understand what Landis brings to the table here.

This was extremely depressing. Mainly because the only thing that would deter Israel is a military defeat. The last year has shown they can do whatever they want up to and including genocide and the western governments will continue to support them. The protest movements haven’t been able to exert enough pressure to get their governments to pull back support.

Feels like the Israel has won narrative of much of the episode is too early. Hezbollah's still firing rockets, their leadership has been devastated but not to the extent that they can't arrange a succession or function at all, and they still have battalions trained for an Israeli invasion with the possibility of a ground invasion very real. And that might well go badly for the Israelis given the difficulties they've had dealing with Hamas. It's always been the case, and still true, that for them the bombing and James Bond shit is the easy bit, the dying they find harder.

The killing of Nasrallah was a “stunning show” of Israel’s “technological superiority” (landis’ “takeaway” #1)… how? The willingness to bomb residential blocks is not a tech innovation, unless your analysis is permanently clouded by a western perspective. Drivel.

Perhaps my memory is poor but feels like it's been a while since we've had a Brendon interlude. Much appreciated.

I think much of landis analysis is correct but I do think he has come to the conclusion that this round of fighting has a determined conclusion and that Israel has achieved total victory. I don’t think that is correct. There will always be new leaders and I think it’s a bit premature to presume that Hezbollah is finished in this round. The RWN guys always make this point about new leaders emerging. Hezbollah has been dug in for a long time. There surely will be others who are capable. We shall see.

I don’t think a return to a Pan Arabism is likely, I also can’t connect with the analysis of “these Arab states just need more democracy” Given your comments about Brute power- What does that give them? Make their Armies large enough to fight Israel? Reverse recognition by Egypt? Get the US out of the region? You have hit on the symptoms, but the cure is still elusive to us all.

Grim ep even by RWN standards. Great analysis

Hamas largely destroyed? You sure about that Joshua

Really depressing episode. I do think they're discounting Iran's show of force too much, they did telegraph what they were gonna hit, when then fired everything in waves. And they still hit some of the targets. I think the reason Iran hasn't retaliated is just don't interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake, Germany has started pulling support and when Netanyahu spoke at the UN most people walked out.

People who think “just get Iran out and no more problems” are fucking morons. As if there’s no such thing as blowback and there’s an actual way to “take Iran out”

I don’t think the 9/11 comparison is a good one; I think the idf didn’t think Gaza/hamas was a threat, whereas they clearly saw hezbollah as one, and divided resources accordingly. I can see the claim of 10/7 being allowed to happen, but Isreal has never needed much justification to murder Palestinians before that, so why would they need it now

This guy never read disconnecting the dots

In Joshua's article, take away #4, he says that that the resistance forces believed the West would turn away from the atrocities in Gaza but haven't. I have learned to think of Israel as a very bad friend and want to the US to distance itself. Perhaps, as you mentioned on previous shows, the next generations will remember these horrors.

I already know this is gonna make me very sad