WOTM: So Predictable
When I've talked about the tools scientists use to acquire actual/actionable knowledge, I've frequently talk about falsification (largely because it's something you can't do in the supernatural realm). I do that a bit more here. But for a while I've been thinking about making a video on predictability, which is an even more important tool.
In doing some research on that topic, I remembered that predictability isn't just a tool used by scientists. It's actually the methodology religious folks are supposed to use in figuring out whether their prophets are speaking prophetically. And guess who wasn't? Jesus! And I'm not using that name as an expletive either.
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This is one of my favorite tropes. If there's a being that can invisibly affect our observations, and we have no ability to control for such a being, then all our observations are instantly rendered suspect and worthless. The very concept of knowledge itself dies with a whimper. Is gravity real, or are objects directly manipulated by the being to move *as if* there was gravity? There's no way to tell. And no way to claim it won't be different tomorrow. Knowledge claims are no longer possible. What happens is that everything is reduced to second-guessing the whims of a supernatural being.
Yup. It astounds me that, despite all the falsification that archæologists, anthropologists, historians, biologists, linguists have provided during the last two centuries for the Nephites' existence, Mormaniacs still believe they did —and continue to predict that someday we'll finally uncover the ruins of Zarahemla.